European beewolf (Philanthus triangulum) will expand its geographic range as a result of climate warming

Abstract

Climate change is an important driver of the spread of apiary pests and honeybee predators. These impact on one of the economically most important pollinators and thus pose serious threats to the functioning of both natural ecosystems and crops. We investigated the impact of the predicted climate change in the periods 2040–2060 and 2060–2080 on the potential distribution of the European beewolf Philanthus triangulum, a specialized honeybee predator. We modelled its potential distribution using the MaxEnt method based on contemporary occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. Our model had an overall good performance (AUC = 0.864) and the threshold of occurrence probability, assessed as the point with the highest sum of sensitivity and specificity, was at 0.533. Annual temperature range (69.5%), mean temperature in the warmest quarter (12.4%), and precipitation in the warmest quarter (7.9%) were the principal bioclimatic variables significantly affecting the potential distribution of the European beewolf. We predicted the potential distribution shifts within two scenarios (optimistic RPC4.5 and pessimistic RCP8.5) and three Global Circulation Models (HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-SM-LR). Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios showed that climate change will significantly increase the availability of European beewolf potential niches. Losses of potential niches will only affect small areas in southern Europe. Most of the anticipated changes for the period 2060–2080 will already have occurred in 2040–2060. The predicted range expansion of European beewolf suggests that occurrence and abundance of this species should be monitored.

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Species Meconopsis punicea Maxim under Future Climate Change Based on Four Species Distribution Models

“…In addition, emission scenarios generated less uncertainty in predicting potential distributions than GCMs ( Figure 4 and Figure 5 ). Our findings were inconsistent with previous studies in that the uncertainty caused by emission scenarios was greater than that caused by GCM [ 37 , 38 , 39 ]. The reason for the difference may be the different emission scenarios chosen.…”

“…Some studies have shown that being dependent on only one SDM to predict the potential distribution of species would cause the result deviation problem [ 35 , 36 ]. In addition, studies have shown that different global circulation models (GCMs) will bring uncertainty to SDMs prediction [ 37 , 38 , 39 ], but the uncertainty caused by emission scenarios is significantly higher than that caused by GCMs [ 37 ]. Therefore, the reliability of conservation studies for endangered species could be improved by considering the comprehensive results under the influence of various uncertainties, including SDM algorithms, emission scenarios and GCMs.…”

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate‐correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

“…As a second-generation empirical niche model, the integrated Maxent modeling we developed has partially considered the changing responses of disease transmission to complex future conditions (Peterson, 2014). (Anibaba et al, 2022;Olszewski et al, 2022;Puchałka et al, 2021).…”

“…If only one of them is used, the results are possibly biased. A better selection of GCMs should be calculating the average and standard deviation of several representative GCMs (e.g., low change level: HadGEM2‐ES; moderate change level: IPSL‐CM5A‐LR; high change level: MPI‐SM‐LR) (Anibaba et al, 2022; Olszewski et al, 2022; Puchałka et al, 2021). In this study, we selected the BCC‐CSM1‐1 model developed by Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration.…”

Changes in Population Densities and Species Richness of Pollinators in the Carpathian Basin during the Last 50 Years (Hymenoptera, Diptera, Lepidoptera)

“…These results are consistent with our experiences. Olszewski et al [82] reported the increase in population density of Philanthus triangulum (Fabricius, 1775), and Eickermann et al [83] wrote about the increasing population of Polistes spp. in Europe.…”