Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

Wen, Xin; Fang, Guohua; Qi, Heshuai; Zhou, Lei; Gao, Yuqin

doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1584-x

Cited by 38 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…And, shorter return periods could affect the resilience of the affected communities to subsequent extreme events, especially in communities or countries at high risk of experiencing extreme weather and climate events like droughts. Precipitation and temperature extremes are considered to be the most important climate events and, have been extensively explored over the past several decades, according to [48]. Although deficient rainfall is considered the chief architect of droughts, heat waves and temperature extremes, though underestimated, often play crucial roles in drought development and intensification [11] and [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Extreme Quantiles of the Maximum Surface Air Temperatures for the Sir Seretse Khama International Airport Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Mothupi¹

2016

AJTAS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, extremes of quarterly maximum surface air temperature are modelled by employing the block maxima approach to extreme value analysis. The aim of the paper is to predict the future behaviour of the quarterly maximum surface air temperatures by estimating their high quantiles using the generalized extreme value distribution, an extreme value distribution usually used to model block maxima. The data are derived from monthly maximum surface air temperatures recorded at the SSSK International Airport Weather Station from January 1985 to December 2015. The Jarque-Bera normality test is performed on the data, and shows that the quarterly maximum temperatures do not follow a normal distribution. The Seasonal Mann-Kendall test detects no monotonic trends for the quarterly maximum temperatures. The Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test indicates that the data are stationary. Parameter values of the generalized extreme value distribution are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood, and both the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness of fit tests show that the distribution gives a reasonable fit to the quarterly maximum surface air temperatures. Estimates of the Tyear return levels for the return periods 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 110 and 120 years reveal that the surface air temperature for the SSK International Airport will be increasing over the next 120 years.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Extreme Quantiles of the Maximum Surface Air Temperatures for the Sir Seretse Khama International Airport Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Mothupi¹

2016

AJTAS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The RCP scenario that are usually utilized are RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 [24][25][26][27]. Each RCP Figure 1.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The RCP scenario that are usually utilized are RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 [24][25][26][27]. Each RCP scenario makes a different assumption for greenhouse gas concentrations and other factors that affect the Earth's climate system [28].…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Peng

Zhao

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960-2017 and 2011-2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011-2055 and 2056-2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period . This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

show abstract

“…Crop growth and production in the semi-arid regions of China are restricted severely by water availability due to limited surface or ground water resources and limited rainfall with uneven temporal and spatial distribution [1][2][3][4]. The rising air temperature and more frequent and intense precipitation extremes have been observed and predicted under climate change projections in the northwestern semi-arid region of China [5][6][7]. This region has become warmer and drier with less groundwater resources [8][9][10], and the increasing variation of precipitation has led to fluctuating grain productions [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Ridge–Furrow Ratio for Maximum Drought Resilience of Sunflower in Semi-Arid Region of China

Pan

et al. 2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Ridge–furrow planting is often applied in semi-arid regions to reduce the drought risk on crop yield under rain-fed conditions. Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) is widely planted in northern China and how to reduce the drought risk on sunflower production remains a significant issue. A three-year field experiment with seven treatments (a flat plot without mulching, three plastic film-mulching treatments and three non-film-mulching treatments with different ridge–furrow ratios (1.0 m:1.0 m, 1.0 m:0.5 m and 0.5 m:1.0 m)) was conducted to study the effects of the ridge–furrow rainwater harvesting system on the rain-fed sunflower. The results showed that the sunflowers in the film-mulched treatment with the larger ridge–furrow ratio (1.0 m:0.5 m) (M1R2) had greater growth advantage under drought conditions. In the dry year, M1R2 improved the yield and water use efficiency by 11.9%–107.5% and 13.8%–120.6%, respectively, and reduced the blight grain rate by 21.5%–32.5% with less evapotranspiration (ET) compared to other treatments. Based on the historical climatological data, the guarantee rate of sunflower water requirement for M1R2 was about 75%, while the guarantee rates for the other two film-mulched treatments were only about 40% and 50%. Based on the effects of drought resilience and the characteristics of precipitation, M1R2 is recommended to be the relatively optimal treatment for sunflower production in regions with similar climatic conditions to Wuchuan County in northern China.

show abstract

Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

Cited by 38 publications

References 39 publications

Estimating Extreme Quantiles of the Maximum Surface Air Temperatures for the Sir Seretse Khama International Airport Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Estimating Extreme Quantiles of the Maximum Surface Air Temperatures for the Sir Seretse Khama International Airport Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Optimal Ridge–Furrow Ratio for Maximum Drought Resilience of Sunflower in Semi-Arid Region of China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About