Changes in building climate zones over China based on high-resolution regional climate projections

Abstract

Based on the up-to-date observations and five sets of high-resolution climate projections under RCP4.5 over East Asia using a regional climate model, this study defines building climate zones over China and assesses their past and future changes according to an established climate classification scheme. The five-model ensemble captures the observed general distribution of climate zones, with a distinct latitudinal pattern over the densely populated eastern China, a subarctic zone in the western mountains including the Tibetan Plateau and a cool dry zone in the Tarim and Turpan basins; large disparities are found in northwestern China due to warm and dry biases. Observational data identifies a recent northward shift of most climate zones in eastern China and a shrinking of the subarctic climate zones over the Tibetan Plateau, which caused a building climate zone change for 18% of the country’s land area. As the warming continues in the future, the five-model ensemble projects additional climate zone changes influencing 43% and 55% of the country by mid- and late-century, respectively. In addition, the total area of the subarctic zone is projected to decrease from 16.6% of the country in present-day climate to 9.2% and 7.4% in the mid- and late-century, respectively, and that of the hot or very-hot climate zone is projected to expand from 4.2% to 9.1% and 11.3%, respectively. These changes should be taken into consideration in long-term development planning related to urbanization, energy efficiency, and environmental sustainability.

Assessing environmental suitability of Ligusticum chuanxiong based on ecological analyses with chemical and molecular verification

“…These findings agree with other studies, which showed that the distribution centers of most species in China are migrating northwards [ 8 , 40 ]. The suitable zones for most species are changing because most climate zones are recently moving northward in China under future warming scenarios [ 41 ]. Therefore, the north movement could be considered in future L. chuanxiong cultivation and planting.…”

Temperature and Precipitation More Than Tree Cover Affect the Distribution Patterns of Epiphytic Mosses within the Orthotrichaceae Family in China and Adjacent Areas

“…Most of the Orthotrichaceae genera used in the modelling showed a strong affinity to the transition zone (ecotone), which is located vertically in the mountain areas (e.g., in the Himalayas or Hengduan Shan) and horizontally at the border of two different climate regions. This zone crosses the area of China diagonally from south to northeast, through the provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Heibei [ 31 , 35 , 36 , 67 ]. Changes that occur in population or community structures at the boundary of two or more habitats are called the ‘edge effect’ [ 78 , 79 ].…”

“…Therefore, species within such genera as Macromitrium and Leratia are very often observed in the south-eastern part of China [ 23 , 24 , 29 , 30 ], where the climate is warmer and more humid, and the temperature difference between day and night smaller [ 31 ], whereas representatives of Lewinskya , Nyholmiella , and Orthotrichum are much more frequently observed in the mountain areas in the central and western part of the country [ 32 , 33 , 34 ]. This observation is related to the distribution of climatic zones (wet and warm vs. dry and cold) in China and generally in eastern Asia [ 31 , 35 , 36 ].…”

Köppen Climate Zones in China Over the Last 21,000 Years

“…The climate zones have been observed to undergo significant changes over the past few decades (Chen & Chen, 2013; Wang & Overland, 2004; Zhang & Yan, 2014; Zhu & Li, 2015). Moreover, the questions of how and to what extent climate zones will change in the 21st century under future emissions scenarios have been extensively addressed, not only globally (e.g., Feng et al., 2014; Mahlstein et al., 2013; Rohli et al., 2015a; Rubel & Kottek, 2010) but also on regional scales (e.g., de Castro et al., 2007; Gallardo et al., 2013; He et al., 2019; Shi et al., 2012; Shi & Wang, 2020; Sylla et al., 2016; Zeroual et al., 2019). Based on the Köppen classification, climate types will become warmer and drier from their current states to the end of the 21st century (Feng et al., 2014).…”