Carbon footprint forecasting using time series data mining methods: the case of Turkey

Abstract

In the globalizing world, many factors such as rapidly increasing population, production and consumption habits, and economic growth cause climate changes. The carbon footprint is a measure of CO 2 emissions released into the atmosphere, which increases day by day, causing glaciers to melt and increase sea level, reduce water resources, and global warming. For Turkey, as a country trying to complete its economic development, signed international agreements such as the Paris Climate Agreement and Kyoto Protocol to reduce the carbon footprint give great importance to the studies estimating carbon footprint and making policies to reduce it. For this reason, in this study it is aimed to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions of Turkey in the year 2030 and to determine its damages to the economy. Time series forecasting algorithm in the WEKA data mining software was used for analysis, and population, gross domestic product, energy production, and energy consumption were used as independent variables. As a result of analysis using data from the years 1990–2017, as long as Turkey continues its course of gradually increasing the amount of current greenhouse gas emissions in the year 2030, 728.3016 metric tons of CO 2 equivalent will be reached. It appears that these estimates remain below the rate of Turkey’s commitments at the Paris Climate Agreement that is considered to be promising for Turkey. However, the estimations in other studies should not be ignored; policy makers should determine policies accordingly.

Renewable Energy, Economic Growth and Economic Development Nexus: A Bibliometric Analysis

“…In addition to this research, South Africa was also studied by [187,188], and India, together with Malaysia, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Colombia, and Poland, were investigated by [189]. The European Union was addressed by [190], and concluded that economic factors accelerate environmental degradation; only Turkey was analyzed in isolation from Europe by [191,192]. ASEAN member countries were investigated by [193] and showed that macroeconomic factors contribute to degradation.…”

European Union 2030 Carbon Emission Target: The Case of Turkey

“…The first input variable of the model is the population, which was also used in the studies carried out by Garip and Oktay (2018), Acheampong et al (2019), Quenard and Roumanie (2021), and Akyol and Uçar (2021) [7,9,13,15].…”

“…The second variable is the gross domestic product (GDP), which shows the economic volume of the country. This variable was also used by Radojevic [4,6,8,9,13,15]. Another economic variable used as an input in the model is the industrial production index.…”

“…According to the results, the greenhouse gas emission amount of Turkey in 2030 was determined to be 728,301 metric tons of CO 2 . The comparison was performed with the values targeted in the climate protocols, and recommendations were provided with regard to the passage to renewable energy [15].…”

Climate Change-Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis and Forecast in Romania

“…Lee et al [34] analyzed the uncertainty of GHG emissions using the parametric Monte Carlo simulation method and the non-parametric bootstrap method, whereas Akyol and Ucar estimated the greenhouse gas emissions of Turkey in the year 2030 using a time series forecasting algorithm in the WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) data mining software [35].…”