European Union 2030 Carbon Emission Target: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Climate awareness caused by the threat of global warming is the number one agenda item for developed and developing economies. Plans developed in this context, environmentally friendly trends in economic activities, and countries’ efforts to adapt to sustainable development have enabled new road maps. The most important of these efforts is the Paris Climate Agreement signed in 2015 and the Green Deal implemented by the European Union (EU) within the framework of this agreement. In this study, the carbon emissions of Turkey, which has important trade relations with the EU, were estimated using machine learning techniques, and a prediction was made for 2030 based on the results obtained. These results were evaluated in line with the targets of the Green Deal. The R2 of support vector regression (SVR), which was applied in the model as one of the machine learning techniques, was found to be 98.4%, and it was found to have the highest predictive power. This technique was followed by multiple linear regression (MLR) with a 97.6% success rate and artificial neural networks (ANN) with a 95.8% success rate, respectively. According to the estimates achieved with the most successful model, SVR, Turkey’s carbon emissions are expected to be 723.97 million metric tons (mt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2030, the target year set by the EU. This level is 42% higher than the target that needs to be achieved given the data existing in 2019. According to these results, Turkey will not be able to reach the targets set by the EU unless it increases its coal-based energy consumption and provides incentives for renewable energy sources.

Temporal Analysis of Energy Transformation in EU Countries

“…The same or similar position in individual rankings is occupied by: Sweden (Temporal PROSA: 1, DARIA-TOPSIS: 1), Denmark (3,3), Austria (4, 5), Latvia (5, 7), Croatia (8,11), Hungary (14,14), Slovakia (16,18), Germany (20,19), Cyprus (27,25). In turn, the largest differences in terms of positions in the rankings occur in the following countries: Estonia (17, 4), Ireland (19,6), Spain (9, 23), Italy (7,21), Luxembourg (26,10), The Netherlands (23,13), Poland (25,12), Portugal (2,24), Romania (10,22). It can be concluded that for some countries the differences in rankings are significant.…”

“…Of particular importance in the EU in the context of energy transformation and the transition to the use of RES is the "Green Deal" program adopted in 2019. It assumes that the EU economy will become "zero-emission" by 2050 and gain energy independence [19]. Moreover, in 2021, the EU adopted the "Fit for 55" package requiring member countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and assuming further increases in the use of RES [12].…”

Estimation Of Turkey's Carbon Dioxide Emission with Machine Learning

“…In this algorithm, the data is analysed and focuses on finding a relationship between them. Unsupervised machine learning has a system structure that focuses on data [15,16].…”

Selection of the Family Electric Car Based on Objective and Subjective Criteria—Analysis of a Case Study of Polish Consumers

“…The 'Green Deal' (adopted by the EU in 2019) and 'Fit for 55' (adopted in 2021) programs are of particular importance in this respect. The first one is a plan to achieve 'zero-emissions' and energy independence by the EU economy by 2050 [1]. In turn, the second program requires EU countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 [2].…”