Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts

Lewis‐Beck, Michael S.; Tien, Charles

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2018.04.014

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…To the contrary, campaigning has perhaps become more valuable than ever for candidates in today's context, in order to counteract opponents' intense flows of communication (Zaller 1989). Furthermore, campaigns may attract or divert voters' attention from the fundamentals at election time (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2018; Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2012; Vavreck 2009). If structural forecasting models still manage to have a good record predicting election outcome, it is thus because the “fundamentals” that are included in those models are strong predictors of voters' electoral behavior.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are election results more unpredictable? A forecasting test

Nadeau

Dassonneville

Lewis‐Beck

et al. 2019

PSRM

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Changes in voters' behavior and in the campaign strategies that political parties pursue are likely to have increased the importance of campaigns on voters' electoral choices. As a result, scholars increasingly question the usefulness and predictive power of structural forecasting models, that use information from “fundamental” variables to make an election prediction several months before Election Day. In this paper, we empirically examine the expectation that structural forecasting models are increasingly error-prone. For doing so, we apply a structural forecasting model to predict elections in six established democracies. We then trace the predictive power of this model over time. Surprisingly, our results do not give the slightest indication of a decline in the predictive power of structural forecasting models. By showing that information on long-term factors still allows making accurate predictions of electoral outcomes, we question the assumption that campaigns matter more now than they did in the past.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are election results more unpredictable? A forecasting test

Nadeau

Dassonneville

Lewis‐Beck

et al. 2019

PSRM

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…A useful rule of thumb has been a popularity number below 50%, since no president with a lower score (in June) has ever seen seat gains (across the time series, 1950-2018). Such a cut off would suggest problems for the Republicans under President Trump, given his June Gallup approval number was only 42 (Lewis-Beck & Tien, 2018).…”

Section: The 2016 Presidential Election: a Reward-punishment Baselinementioning

confidence: 99%

Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?

Tien

Lewis‐Beck

2023

American Politics Research

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Given Trump’s provocative personal profile, coupled with boasts of his political prowess, one might expect that the electorate would not allocate praise or blame at the ballot box in the usual reward and punishment way. They might blame him more than other candidates or, indeed, they might blame him less. Utilizing election forecasting as a benchmark, in particular the structural model of political economy, we assess whether voters blamed him less for his faltering performance with respect to leading policy issues, particularly the economy and COVID-19. Our findings suggest that, contrary to claims from supporters, voters punished him at least as much as they punished past presidents, when confronted with similar issue contexts. The Trump image of a leader with superior powers has the character of fiction, rather than fact.

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“…Para finalizar, trabajos desarrollados en estudios de caso geográficamente distanciados como España, Inglaterra y Estados Unidos [22]- [24] brindan resultados interesantes en sus propios contextos. Se establece que la localización geográfica juega un papel importante cuando se realizan las predicciones basadas en comportamientos sociales ya que los usuarios de internet hacen uso de las herramientas de una forma distinta.…”

Section: Análisis De Sentimientos Y Otras Técnicas De Predicciónunclassified

Predicción electoral usando un modelo híbrido basado en análisis sentimental y seguimiento a encuestas: elecciones presidenciales de Colombia

Callejas-Cuervo

Vélez-Guerrero

2019

Rev. politec.

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La disponibilidad de los medios digitales ha proporcionado una poderosa herramienta para expresar opiniones incluyendo aspectos sociales y políticos desarrollados en cada región. En Colombia, el uso de redes sociales ha dado lugar a la difusión masiva de opiniones políticas, especialmente durante el período de campaña en las elecciones presidenciales nacionales. Este trabajo propone un modelo híbrido para predecir el desenlace de la primera vuelta en las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia en 2018 (pre-hoc), cuyo objetivo es minimizar el error absoluto y mejorar la calidad de la predicción final. Las actividades de los usuarios en Twitter y Facebook fueron registradas y analizadas, obteniendo como resultado una predicción precisa y coherente con la realidad, donde el RMSE del modelo híbrido ronda el 2,47%, superando en promedio el RMSE de las firmas encuestadoras tradicionales más prominentes del país. Adicionalmente también se predijo el valor del abstencionismo electoral con un error diferencial de 1,72% con respecto al valor real, demostrando la confiabilidad de la metodología propuesta.

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Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts

Cited by 7 publications

References 21 publications

Are election results more unpredictable? A forecasting test

Are election results more unpredictable? A forecasting test

Economics, COVID, Election Forecasting: Did Trump Escape Blame?

Predicción electoral usando un modelo híbrido basado en análisis sentimental y seguimiento a encuestas: elecciones presidenciales de Colombia

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