Can Automatic Government Spending Be Procyclical?

Galeano, Luciana; Izquierdo, Alejandro; Puig, Jorge; Végh, Carlos A.; Vúletin, Guillermo

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3799812

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…This interest has also extended to automatic government spending. The results of Galeano et al (2021) plotting the cyclical components of GDP and primary spending for 131 countries during 1980-2018 show differences across countries and that the nature of unemployment insurance and social security spending are crucial determinants of government spending cyclicality. D'Addio (2015) used data on social security benefits to study the cyclicality of social spending for a panel of 20 OECD countries between 1982 and 2011 employing one-step robust system-GMM, finding that its countercyclical behaviour is stronger in recessions than expansions.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises

2022

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This paper expands the analysis of the cyclical characteristics of social spending by providing information on its joint behaviour across OECD countries. With this aim we propose the use of dynamic factor analysis and recursive models to estimate synchronization and cyclicality of social policies within a broad perspective. By considering the synchronization of social spending it is possible to assess the short-run characteristics of the joint response to changes in the economic cycle. We find that synchronization of social spending was only possible for advanced economies, achieving the highest countercyclical stabilization effect during the Global Financial Crisis. Emerging market economies are not able to join the synchronized response, maintaining independent and, in most cases, procyclical stances in the behaviour of their social policies.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises

2022

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“…Mais recentemente, uma agenda de pesquisa tem se debruçado a estudar os efeitos da política fiscal no ciclo econômico. Neste sentido, Galeano et al (2021) mostram que os gastos públicos são contracíclicos no mundo desenvolvido e procíclicos no mundo emergente. Tal fato estaria relacionado à presença de estabilizadores automáticos, como o seguro-desemprego, e de mecanismos de indexação.…”

Section: A Literaturaunclassified

Assimetrias e causalidades entre receitas de despesas públicas no Brasil

Neto

Silva²

2022

Estud. econ

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Este artigo analisa a política fiscal brasileira de janeiro/2003 a dezembro/2018, buscando enquadrá-la numa das taxonomias (arrecadar gastar, gastar-arrecadar, sincronização fiscal, neutralidade fiscal), além de examinar suas receitas e despesas e possíveis relações assimétricas e causalidades. Os Modelos Não Lineares Autorregressivos de Defasagens Distribuídas com cointegração mostram que receitas e despesas totais, também desagregadas em obrigatórias e discricionárias, cointegram. Ademais, a política fiscal brasileira é do tipo “gastar-arrecadar”, na relação receitas-despesas totais e obrigatórias, e “arrecadar-gastar”, na relação receitasdespesas discricionárias. Há assimetria entre despesas totais e obrigatórias, que crescem acompanhando PIB e receitas, mas não caem na recessão. Quedas da arrecadação geram redução de gasto discricionário, que ajusta o orçamento no curto prazo e viabiliza o equilíbrio fiscal de longo prazo.

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“…This literature has highlighted the role of the business cycle (Riera-Crichton et al, 2015;Suárez-Serrato and Wingender, 2016;Buchheim et al, 2020), trade openness (Ilzetzki et al, 2013;Corbi et al, 2019), the exchange rate 4 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution regime (Born et al, 2013), population demographics (Basso and Rachedi, 2021), households' heterogeneity (Hagedorn et al, 2019), labor market rigidity (Cole and Ohanian, 2004;Gorodnichenko et al, 2012), automatic stabilizers (Dolls et al, 2012;Galeano et al, 2021), public indebtedness (Ilzetzki et al, 2013), the degree of monetary policy accommodation (Woodford, 2011), firm-size distribution (Juarros, 2020), and the direction of the intervention (Barnichon et al, 2020) in amplifying the response of economic activity to public spending. This paper concentrates on the characteristics of the fiscal spending itself rather than the characteristics of the economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%