Campbell's Atlas of Oil and Gas Depletion

Campbell, Colin J.

doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-3576-1

Cited by 37 publications

(48 citation statements)

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“…Depletion rates have been studied since the late 1970s [4] and the concept has become prominent in the peak oil debate largely because of the work of Campbell [5][6][7][8]-although he is far from alone in using depletion rates. However, the definition of depletion rates and the methodology for estimating them has varied over time and has never been as standardized as is the case for decline rates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Two of the most fundamental concepts in the current debate about future oil supply are oilfield decline rates and depletion rates . These concepts are related, but not identical. This paper clarifies the definitions of these concepts, summarizes the underlying theory and empirically estimates decline and depletion rates for different categories of oilfield. A database of 880 post-peak fields is analysed to determine typical depletion levels, depletion rates and decline rates. This demonstrates that the size of oilfields has a significant influence on decline and depletion rates, with generally high values for small fields and comparatively low values for larger fields. These empirical findings have important implications for oil supply forecasting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Höök

Davidsson

Johansson

et al. 2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…3 It is likely that the application of new drilling and completion technologies will spread beyond North America. Tight oil reservoirs are already being tested in China, Russia and Argentina, and it is probable that there will be a substantial increase in tight oil reserves and production elsewhere, in ways we cannot precisely predict today.…”

Section: (F) New Ideas About Where To Explorementioning

confidence: 99%

“…While extraction methods for tight oil are unconventional, the light, sweet crudes are geochemically conventional; refineries are interested Schematic showing future models of oil supply: ever upwards, peak oil and undulating plateau. Sources: peak oil after [3]; all others IHS CERA internal data.…”

Section: Post-2030: Views Of Future Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply

Jackson¹,

Smith

2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an ‘undulating plateau’ rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price? As the plateau approaches, oil prices are likely to increase strongly, with some very severe spikes along the way.

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“…For example, most recent work on peak oil apply disaggregated projections to improve the accuracy, e.g., [12][13][14]. A disaggregated approach is made difficult, as the USA helium production statistics by state and world helium production by country for the entire time that commercial quantities of helium have been produced has not been collated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Helium Production and Possible Projection

Mohr

Ward

2014

Minerals

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The future availability of helium has been raised as an issue in the literature. However, a disaggregated projection of helium production has not been attempted, presumably due to the difficult nature of accessing disaggregated historic production data to test the accuracy of this issue. This paper presents collated and estimated historic helium production statistics from 1921 to 2012 for each helium producing country in the world and by U.S. state. A high and regular growth projection of helium has been created. It is found that helium resources are sufficient for the near future, with the projected production plateauing in 2060-2075 and 2090-2100 for the high and regular growth scenarios, respectively. As long as natural gas deposits with helium are appropriately managed, there is little likelihood for helium shortages to occur in the short term due to geologic constraints.

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Campbell's Atlas of Oil and Gas Depletion

Cited by 37 publications

References 0 publications

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation

Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply

Helium Production and Possible Projection

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