Brexit or Bremain? A person and social analysis of voting decisions in the EU referendum

Abstract

The period following UK's European Union referendum in 2016 foreshadows significant social and political change in the UK. The current research draws on social psychological theories to empirically examine the drivers of voting decisions during the referendum. We report the results of a prospective study using structural equation modelling with data (N = 244) collected just before, and self‐reported voting behaviour immediately following (N = 197), the European Union referendum. We employ a person and social approach to examine the additive roles of worldview, conservatism, social identity, and intergroup threat as predictors of voting intentions and behaviour. Results showed that person factors (worldview and conservatism) predicted voting intentions through social factors (European identity and realistic threat) and that intentions predicted behaviour. The results highlight the importance of addressing threat‐based intergroup rhetoric and the potential of common in‐group identity to mitigate psychological threat.

The role of intuitive moral foundations in Britain's vote on EU membership

“…Rather than a deep sense of nationalism, a preference to vote leave appears to have been based around conservatism (which, admittedly, is predicted by a temperamental preference for firm category borders; Hirsch, DeYoung, Xu, & Peterson, ), insecurities about social change, and a desire for greater liberty. These data are consistent with previous work on Brexit (Van der Vyver et al, ) and have potential implications for communicating about the Brexit issue as the United Kingdom moves through the process of leaving the EU (and beyond). That is, there has been a noticeable movement towards anti‐EU parties across Europe in recent years.…”

“…Drawing on common themes within the popular discourse surrounding the referendum itself, in 2, we examined the extent to which the moral foundations described above predicted vote intentions prior to the referendum. After controlling for demographic variables, we sought to replicate prior findings suggesting that political conservatism and perceived threats around social change were associated with a propensity to vote leave (Van der Vyver et al, 2018).…”

Needs satisfaction in intergroup contact: A multi-national study of pathways toward social change

“…A third limitation is that four out of five measures of support for social change assessed intentions rather than actual behavior. While intentions are reliable predictors of actual support for social change (Tausch et al, 2011), particularly voting intentions (Van de Vyver et al, 2018), actual support might sometimes be lower (see also the intentionimplementation-gap; Dixon et al, 2007).…”

5. Explaining the Brexit Vote: A Socioeconomic and Psychological Exploration of the Referendum Vote

“…It is widely believed that immigration was a key factor driving the decision to leave the EU (M. Goodwin & Milazzo, 2017). Research suggests that a perceived threat from immigrant "outgroups" was a predictive factor in voting to Leave (Van de Vyver, Leite, Abrams, & Palmer, 2018). This perceived threat from immigration could have been accentuated by increases in immigration levels in areas with strong Leave votes (M. Goodwin & Milazzo, 2017; M. J.…”

“…Social identity theory (SIT) was developed to account for how and why individuals from disadvantaged minority groups often do not directly confront dominant societal majority groups, even if their group is disadvantaged (Hogg & Abrams, 1988;Tajfel, 1978). The theory may help explain why those who were less likely to identify as European are more likely to vote Leave ( Van de Vyver et al, 2018). SIT, suggests that a portion of an individual's selfconcept is derived from their perceived or actual membership of certain social groups, as well as their non-membership to other groups.…”