Biogeographical estimates of allergenic pollen transport over regional scales: Common ragweed and Szeged, Hungary as a test case

Makra, László; Matyasovszky, István; Tusnády, Gábor; Wang, Yaqiang; Csépe, Zoltán; Bozóki, Zoltán; Nyúl, László G.; Erostyák, János; Bodnár, Károly; Sümeghy, Zoltán; Vogel, H.; Pauling, Andreas; Páldy, Anna; Magyar, Donát; Mányoki, Gergely; Bergmann, K. C.; Bonini, Maira; Šikoparija, Branko; Radišić, Predrag; Gehrig, Regula; Seliger, Andreja Kofol; Stjepanović, Barbara; Rodinkova, Victoria; Prikhodko, Alexander; Maleeva, Anna; Severova, Elena; Ščevková, Jana; Ianovici, Nıcoleta; Peternel, Renata; Thibaudon, M.

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.02.006

Cited by 34 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…Ragweed pollen can disperse 100’s of kilometers (Bullock et al, 2013), thus affecting allergic persons in areas without established ragweed populations. This has already been shown using complex cluster backward trajectories (Makra et al, 2016), and Hamaoui-Laguel et al (2015) estimated that airborne ragweed pollen concentration will increase about four times by 2050, dispersing pollen across large regions of Europe. The low atmospheric concentration of ragweed pollen necessary to induce allergic reactions in sensitive patients (∼5 grains m −3 ) (Déchamp et al, 1997) combined with the long-distance wind dispersal potential, makes urban ragweed populations important sources for pollen induced allergies across large spatial areas (Belmonte et al, 2000; Essl et al, 2015; Hamaoui-Laguel et al, 2015).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Rasmussen

Thyrring

Muscarella

et al. 2017

PeerJ

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Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Rasmussen

Thyrring

Muscarella

et al. 2017

PeerJ

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“…It is striking that these pollen grains maintain their allergenic power over such a long distances, even after spending days in the atmosphere (Makra et al, 2016;Grewling et al, 2016). This means that exposed individuals may become sensitized to ragweed pollen allergens and develop symptoms even in areas where the plant is not widely distributed (Grewling et al, 2016).…”

Section: A Pollen Characteristics Related To Allergymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Worldwide Spread, Success, and Impact of Ragweed (Ambrosiaspp.)

Montagnani

Gentili

Smith

et al. 2017

Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences

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Ambrosia species represent one of the most problematic groups of invasive weeds around the world. The ease they are introduced and spread in new countries, their generalist ecological requirements and functional traits facilitate their invasion and subsequent naturalization in new areas. All of these aspects contribute to increasing their global social and economic impact, which is mostly related to pollen allergy. Here we analyse available scientific publications about Ambrosia artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, A. tenuifolia and A. trifida, with the aim of defining the current level of knowledge and summarizing important data that is currently scattered throughout the literature. Specifically, we analysed the following: (1) their current global distribution and current stage of invasion; (2) traits and requirements promoting their introduction, reproductive success and adaptation to climate and environment in the non-native range; as well as (3) current knowledge about allergens and elements increasing their impact.

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“…F. schultzei ) (Hoddle et al ., ) species have the possibility to establish populations in new regions of Europe for a longer period, if favourable conditions are provided by the current climate change. For example, the warming climate is favourable for the spread of bio‐aerosols, such as spores (Werner, ) and pollen (Makra et al ., ) in Europe by long‐distance transport. Moreover, dangerous human and animal pathogenic insects (vectors) may also occur in Hungary as a result of climate change (Trájer et al ., , ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The first record of subtropical insects (Thysanoptera) in central Europe: long‐distance transport of airborne thrips, applying three‐dimensional backward trajectories

Makra

Bodnár

Fülöp

et al. 2017

Agri and Forest Entomology

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1 The present study reports the first occurrence and flight period of three species, namely Scolothrips tenuipennis zur Strassen 1965, Frankliniella schultzei Trybom, 1910 and Zurstrassenia figuratus zur Strassen, 1968, in Hungary. A fourth, undescribed species belonging to the genus Caliothrips was also captured. 2 The distribution area of these species is North Africa and it is hypothesized that they are transported to Hungary via long-distance air currents. 3 Data for a suction trap are examined in South-East Hungary, in the 3-year period 2002-2004 from May to September. A three-dimensional back-trajectory analysis based on the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) transport and dispersion model was performed for the observation days to determine the origin and path of air masses and evaluate of the possibility of long-distance transport of thrips species. 4 Surprisingly, the analysis showed that only a few percent of the back trajectories originated or passed over North Africa. The results suggest that the captured thrips species could survive long-distance transport at low-level trajectories and establish new populations in Western Europe, the eastern part of Europe and Northern Central Europe, which together serve as source areas for the long-range transport of thrips to the target station.

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Biogeographical estimates of allergenic pollen transport over regional scales: Common ragweed and Szeged, Hungary as a test case

Cited by 34 publications

References 105 publications

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

The Worldwide Spread, Success, and Impact of Ragweed (Ambrosiaspp.)

The first record of subtropical insects (Thysanoptera) in central Europe: long‐distance transport of airborne thrips, applying three‐dimensional backward trajectories

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