Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (AmbrosiaL.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

Abstract

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Invasive flora within urban railway areas: a case study from Lublin (Poland) and Lviv (Ukraine)

“…In our study, this species was recorded exclusively in Lviv. It is in accordance with other reports showing that in Europe, A. artemisiifolia L. is mainly distributed in warmer south regions [28]. However, due to climate change and mean air temperature increase, the occurrence of A. artemisiifolia L. is expected to extend further north [72].…”

“…These physical conditions also directly determine the environment for establishment and survival (reproductive success, seedling recruitment, growth) of plant species outside their distributional range [25,26]. In the last decade, many studies have discussed the potential impact of climate change on the risk of plant invasions [27,28].…”

Fate of the soil seed bank of giant ragweed and its significance in preventing and controlling its invasion in grasslands

“…Giant ragweed ( Ambrosia trifida L. GR) is a natural colonizer of disturbed areas native to North America (Goplen, 2015); its pollen creates a threat to human health as a major cause of hay fever (Abul‐fatih & Bazzaz, 1979; Hamaoui‐Laguel et al, 2015; Richter et al, 2013). The distribution of GR and the effects of its pollen are expected to become increasingly serious under global warming (Rasmussen, Thyrring, Muscarella, & Borchsenius, 2017). GR also causes crop reduction and other forms of agricultural loss (Harrison, Regnier, & Schmoll, 2003; Kong, Wang, & Xu, 2007; Schutte et al, 2008).…”

“…Giant ragweed propagates exclusively by seeds (Rasmussen et al, 2017). This annual plant uses an r‐strategy during reproduction, featuring rapid development, a large proportion of reproductive allocation, a short generation cycle, and production of a large number of individuals.…”

Predicting abundances of invasive ragweed across Europe using a “top-down” approach

“…Consequently, the spatial and temporal resolution of abundance data for common ragweed in Europe is very heterogeneous, which hampers mapping of the distribution and abundance of the plant. There have been several attempts to model the distribution of common ragweed using either occurrence data (Bullock et al, 2010) or ecosystem models (Chapman et al, 2014;Rasmussen et al, 2017;Storkey et al, 2014), but all these studies have limitations describing actual abundances (Matyasovszky et al, 2018;Thibaudon et al, 2014). A main constraint is that the invasion of common ragweed is still ongoing in many countries (Karrer et al, 2015;Onen et al, 2014) and management of the landscape often increases invasion (Richter et al, 2013).…”