Bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI dataset

Lange, Stefan

doi:10.5194/esd-9-627-2018

Cited by 98 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…The reasons for using this approach were twofold: first, the bias-corrected data for the HadGem2-ES were produced within the ISI-MIP project (Hempel et al, 2013;Warszawski et al, 2014) but at daily time steps only, while the ED2 land surface model requires more detailed time scale inputs (we used the three hourly original data made available by the U.K. Meteorological Office, later downscaled at hourly time steps). Methodologies for the calculation of bias corrected surface downward longwave and shortwave radiation data were made available only recently (as reviewed in Lange, 2018). Methodologies for the calculation of bias corrected surface downward longwave and shortwave radiation data were made available only recently (as reviewed in Lange, 2018).…”

Section: Bias Correction Of Simulated Streamflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, statistical bias correction of meteorological data is typically applied only to temperature and precipitation, thereby creating physical inconsistencies with the other variables needed for the land surface model forcing (longwave and shortwave radiation, humidity, pressure, and wind, as described in Table 1). Methodologies for the calculation of bias corrected surface downward longwave and shortwave radiation data were made available only recently (as reviewed in Lange, 2018).…”

Section: Bias Correction Of Simulated Streamflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

et al. 2019

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Land conversion and changing climate are expected to significantly alter tropical forest hydrology. We used a land surface model integrated with a river routing scheme to analyze the hydrological alterations expected in the Tapajós River basin, a large portion of the Brazilian Amazon, caused by two environmental drivers: climate and land use. The model was forced with two future climate scenarios (years 2026-2045) from the Earth System Model HadGem2-ES with moderate (+4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing value in the year 2100 with respect to preindustrial levels) and severe (+8.5 W/m 2 ) representative atmospheric carbon dioxide pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways). We tested the sensitivity of our results to the uncertainty in future climate projections by running simulations with IPSL-CM5 (wettest scenarios) and GISS-E2 (driest scenarios). Human land use effects on vegetation were evaluated using a limited and an extreme deforestation scenario. Our analysis indicates that climate change is predicted to reduce river flows across seasons (up to 20%) and bring a considerable shift in flow seasonality toward a later onset (nearly 1.5 months) and increase in interannual variability. While land use change partially counteracts the climate-driven diminishing trend in river flows, it is expected to contribute to a further increase in interannual and intraannual variability. From a water management perspective, the overall reduction of river flows and their increased variability, combined with the shift and the shortening of the wet season, could potentially affect the productivity of the large hydropower systems planned for the region and the growing demand for agricultural and transport expansion.Plain Language Summary Climate and land use change are expected to heavily modify the water cycle. This is particularly true in tropical areas, where human-driven changes may completely alter river discharge. The Amazon is the largest of the remaining tropical forests. Increasing agriculture and livestock production have significantly altered land cover in the region. This pattern is projected to continue in the coming decades. The change in the Amazon's future is highly uncertain: the direct effects of climate and land use change are not well understood and the response also depends on complex Earth-atmosphere exchanges. We used computer models representing water and energy cycles over time to understand how environmental changes are likely to alter the discharge of the Tapajós River system in southeastern Amazon. By combining two climate and two land use scenarios, we found that climate change is expected to reduce the river flows in the basin, bringing a delay in the flow seasonality and increasing the overall variability. Land use change, conversely, is expected to cause an increase in flow magnitude and variability. Besides the serious environmental consequences, these findings have important implications for the management and development of water in this strategic area for Brazil's energy and food production.

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Section: Bias Correction Of Simulated Streamflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Bias Correction Of Simulated Streamflowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

et al. 2019

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“…This spatial dataset includes downscaled daily climate projections on a horizontal grid with 0.5°× 0.5°resolution from four GCMs (i.e. GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5) corrected for bias based on the EartH2 Observe, WFDEI and ERA-Interim data Merged and Bias-corrected for ISIMIP (EWEMBI) dataset [31,32]. We obtained location-specific daily temperature series for future period under all the four GCMs for each of the four climate change scenarios, i.e.…”

Section: Temperature Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Rai

Breitner

Wolf

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Background. Recent studies on temperature-related mortality burden generally found higher coldrelated deaths than heat-related deaths. In the future, it is anticipated that global warming will, on one hand result in larger heat-related mortality but on the other hand lead to less cold-related mortality. Thus, it remains unclear whether the net change in temperature-related mortality burden will increase in the future under climate change.Objectives. We aimed to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and the total temperature-related (net change) mortality burden taking into account the future demographic changes across five districts in Bavaria, Germany by the end of the 21st century.Methods. We applied location-specific age-specific exposure-response functions (ERFs) to project the net change in temperature-related mortality burden during the future period 2083-2099 as compared to the baseline period 1990-2006. The projections were under different combinations of five climate change scenarios (assuming a constant climate, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and six population projection scenarios (assuming a constant population, Shared Socio-economic Pathway [SSP] 1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5). Our projections were under the assumption of a constant vulnerability of the future population. We furthered compared the results with projections using location-specific overall all-age ERFs, i.e. not considering the age-effect and population aging.Results. The net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to increase significantly under all scenarios of climate and population change with the highest total increments under SSP5-RCP8.5 by 19.61% (95% empirical CI (eCI): 11.78, 30.91). Under the same scenario for age 75, the increment was by 30.46% (95% eCI: 18.60, 47.74) and for age <75, the increment was by 0.28% (95% eCI: −2.84, 3.24). Considering the combination SSP2-RCP2.6, the middle-of-the road population and the lowest climate change scenario, the net temperature-related mortality for the total population was found to still increase by 9.33% (95% eCI: 5.94, 12.76). Contrastingly, the mortality projection without consideration of an age-effect and population aging under the same scenario resulted in a decrease of temperature-related deaths by −0.23% (95% eCI −0.64, 0.14), thus showing an underestimation of temperature-related mortality. Furthermore, the results of climate-only effect showed no considerable changes, whereas, the population-only effect showed a high, up to 17. 35% (95% eCI: 11.46, 22.70), increment in the net temperature-related deaths.Conclusion. The elderly population (age 75), highly vulnerable to both heat and cold, is projected to be about four folds the younger population (age<75) in the future. Thus, the combined effect of global warming and population aging results in an increase in both the heat-and the cold-related deaths. The population-effect dominates the climate-effect. Mitigation and age-specific adapta...

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“…CWatM is able to use different dataset of meteorological forcing for current climate, for example, MSWEP (Beck et al, 2017), WFDEI (Weedon et al, 2014), PGMFD (Sheffield et al, 2006), GSWP3 or EWEMBI (Lange, 2018) or future climate projections from different General Circulation Models (GCMs), ) (e.g., data from ISIMIP project (Frieler et al, 2016). CWatM can use the netCDF4 repositories of original meteorological forcing without reformatting.…”

Section: Meteorological Forcing 185mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model can also be applied at 30 arc sec. CWatM follows a modeling concept similar to that of large-scale hydrological models such as H08 (Hanasaki et al, 2006;2018), WaterGAP (Alcamo et al, 2003;Flörke et al, 2013), LPJmL (Bondeau et al, 2007;Rost et al, 2008), LISFLOOD (De Roo et al, 2000;Burek et al, 2013;De Roo et al, 2000), PCR-GLOBWB (Van Beek et al, 2011;Wada et al, 2014;Sutanudjaja et al, 2018), VIC (Xu et al, 1994), MHM (Samaniego et al, 2011;Kumar et al, 2013), and HBV (Bergström and Forsman, 110 1973;Lindström, 1997). A comprehensive overview of existing GHMs is given in Bierkens (2015), Kauffeldt et al (2016), Pokhrel et al (2016), Wada et al (2017), and in the ISI-MIP project (Frieler et al, 2016) , the latter having been used for https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-214 Preprint.…”

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confidence: 99%

Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) A high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

Burek¹,

Satoh²,

Kahil³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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We develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, the Community Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globally and regionally at different resolutions from 30 arc min to 30 arc sec at daily time steps.CWatM is open-source in the Python programming environment and has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in the netCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in a compact way. CWatM includes general surface 15 and groundwater hydrological processes, but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, and return flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme.CWatM is used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible model structure allows dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water quality models for the assessment and evaluation of water management options. Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of 20 the-art hydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual and automatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments at different spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change, and expand the opensource project. CWatM also strives to build a community learning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrological model and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such as energy and agriculture.PCR-GLOBWB Wada et al., 2014, Sutanudjaja et al., 2018, }, SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (Habets et 30

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Bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI dataset

Cited by 98 publications

References 36 publications

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajós Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Impact of climate and population change on temperature-related mortality burden in Bavaria, Germany

Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) A high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management

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