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HighlightsData driven spatially explicit index of hydro-political issues magnitude.Estimation of the non-linear interactions between factors determining water issues.Increasing climate change and population are likely to boost hydro-political issues.

Highlights Two hydrological models are established for 76 sub-basins covering the whole of the Zambezi River basin. While both models were successfully calibrated in most areas, there remain a number of uncertainties, mostly related to the available data. The poor simulations for the Shire sub-basins are associated with uncertainties in the observed flow data, as well as the dynamics of Lake Malawi. A further source of uncertainty is related to the interactions of some major tributary river systems with adjacent large wetland areas.