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2023
DOI: 10.1177/07388942221149670
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Beyond deterrence: Uncertain stability in the nuclear era

Abstract: This paper identifies profound contradictions within and across nuclear deterrence strategies that evolved in response to the proliferation and modernization of nuclear weapons. To reconcile theory with practice, we summarize the theoretical assumptions and implications of nuclear strategy. Informed by these discussions, we develop a decision-theoretic model of deterrence based on power transition theory. We explore conditions for the stability of deterrence and link outcomes to policy decisions. The condition… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(1 citation statement)
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“…With the proliferation of strategic nuclear weapons, the concept of MR loses its effectiveness and becomes inappropriate, leaving MAD as the only possible deterrence strategy. Apart from long-range bombers, mass production of intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles for submarines began in the mid-1960s (Kang & Kugler, 2023). However, over time, the United States has moved to a strategy of extended deterrence and a format of cooperation with non-nuclear states in the form of the socalled "nuclear umbrella".…”
Section: Table 1 Number Of Nuclear Warheads In the Arsenals Of The Wo...mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With the proliferation of strategic nuclear weapons, the concept of MR loses its effectiveness and becomes inappropriate, leaving MAD as the only possible deterrence strategy. Apart from long-range bombers, mass production of intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles for submarines began in the mid-1960s (Kang & Kugler, 2023). However, over time, the United States has moved to a strategy of extended deterrence and a format of cooperation with non-nuclear states in the form of the socalled "nuclear umbrella".…”
Section: Table 1 Number Of Nuclear Warheads In the Arsenals Of The Wo...mentioning
confidence: 99%