Bayes plus Brass: Estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Cavenaghi, Suzana; Assunção, Renato M.; Potter, Joseph E.

doi:10.1080/00324728.2013.795602

Cited by 21 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This results in a period cumulated fertility (F 2 ) which should be closer to the experience of the cohort aged 20-24. However, the onset and pace of fertility decline in the various regions in Brazil were not the same (POTTER;SCHMERTMANN;CAVENAGHI, 2002). This was also the case for adolescent fertility.…”

Section: Data and Proposed Alternativementioning

confidence: 94%

“…Discussions regarding the suitability of the technique's application in a scenario of general fertility decline are not new (CARVALHO, 1982;CASTANHEIRA;KOHLER, 2016;ALVES, 2016;FEENEY, 1996;SCHMERTMANN et al, 2013;UNITED NATIONS, 1983). However, we consider the focus on adolescent fertility should be a key part of the debate, and it has yet to be brought under the spotlight.…”

Section: The P/f Brass Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this condition is unmet in the Brazilian case since the 1960s. A number of authors have drawn attention to the implications of unsatisfying this condition when estimating Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) and Total Fertility Rates (TFR) using the P/F Brass approach (CARVALHO, 1982;CASTANHEIRA;KOHLER, 2016;FEENEY, 1996;MOULTRIE;DORRINGTON, 2008;SCHMERTMANN et al, 2013;UNITED NATIONS, 1983). Nevertheless, in this paper we show that if the P/F ratio for age group 20-24 is employed as a good reference period error estimator, it is required that fertility at ages 15-19 (adolescent fertility) have remained constant in the 5 years before the census reference date.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass em um contexto de rápida queda da fecundidade adolescente

Carvalho

Gonçalves

Silva

2018

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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O Brasil experimentou, entre 2000 e 2010, pela primeira vez desde 1970, quando se introduziu o quesito sobre filhos nascidos vivos nos 12 meses anteriores à data de referência do censo, queda significativa (em torno de 30%) das taxas específicas de fecundidade declarada das mulheres entre 15 e 19 anos (f *1). Esse fenômeno tem uma importante consequência para a aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass: gera um erro, por falta, na fecundidade corrente acumulada até o grupo etário de 20 a 24 anos (F2), se tomada como experiência pregressa dessa coorte, levando a um valor de P2/F2, usado para ajustar o nível da fecundidade declarada, significativamente sobrestimado. O presente trabalho discute detalhadamente este problema e, por fim, propõe uma alternativa para se corrigir o erro de período de referência da fecundidade corrente do Censo Demográfico de 2010 do Brasil. A alternativa proposta, neste contexto específico, gerou estimativas de taxa de fecundidade total muito próximas às produzidas por outras técnicas.

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Section: Data and Proposed Alternativementioning

confidence: 94%

Section: The P/f Brass Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass em um contexto de rápida queda da fecundidade adolescente

Carvalho

Gonçalves

Silva

2018

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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“…La razón entre estos dos factores sería usada para corregir la fecundidad reciente. Diversos trabajos han destacado limitaciones del método P/F de Brass, especialmente en contextos de rápido descenso y cambio de la estructura etaria de la fecundidad (CARVALHO et al, 2016;CASTANHEIRA;KOHLER, 2015;DORRINGTON, 2008;SCHMERTMANN et al, 2013).…”

Section: Datos Y Métodosunclassified

¿Converge la fecundidad en Brasil y Argentina? Un enfoque desde las desigualdades

Sacco¹,

Borges

2018

Rev. bras. estud. popul.

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La idea de una tendencia de la fecundidad hacia niveles convergentes en América Latina y el Caribe posee una amplia aceptación, tanto en estudios académicos como así también en los supuestos por detrás de las proyecciones de población de los países de la región. Sin embargo, es poco lo que se sabe sobre los procesos de convergencia demográfica al descomponer la fecundidad según variables de diferenciación social. El objetivo de este artículo fue observar de forma comparada la hipótesis de convergencia en Argentina y Brasil desde 1970 hasta el 2010 de acuerdo a un análisis de periodo de la tasa global de fecundidad (TGF) según regiones estadísticas, niveles educativos y categorías socioocupacionales. Los datos provienen de los censos nacionales de población y las variables fueron armonizadas de manera tal de lograr comparaciones entre ambos países. Se aplicó una modificación de los métodos de la razón P/F de Brass y del modelo relacional de Gompertz para estimar los niveles de fecundidad, y se calcularon medidas de convergencia y dispersión para evaluar la hipótesis según las variables de análisis. Los resultados muestran evidencia de que la fecundidad presentó pautas de convergencia durante el período de estudio, especialmente para Brasil, aunque con algunos ciclos de divergencia y diferencias notorias entre los dos países, en particular de aquellos derivados de la posición en la estructura ocupacional.

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“…In recent years, the number of applications of hierarchical Bayes models to demographic questions has been growing rapidly. Representative examples include the following: estimation of marriage rates, including the probability of never marrying, for seventeenth-century Italy (Rosina 2006 ); a study of geographical variation in mortality in modern Italy (Divino et al 2009 ); a model of age at first birth in Nigeria (Gayawan and Adebayo 2013 ); estimation of mortality rates by migration status in New Zealand (Richardson et al 2013 ); estimation of fertility rates in over 5,000 municipalities in Brazil (Schmertmann et al 2013 ); and an analysis of intergenerational ‘transmission’ of fertility patterns (Osiewalska 2013 ). Some Bayesian principles, including heavy reliance on prior information, have been also used by Schmertmann ( 2012 ) in designing a calibrated-spline method for estimating the age patterns of fertility.…”

Section: Key Areas Of Demographic Applicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

Bijak

Bryant

2016

Population Studies

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Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms.

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Bayes plus Brass: Estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data

Cited by 21 publications

References 14 publications

Aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass em um contexto de rápida queda da fecundidade adolescente

Aplicação da técnica P/F de Brass em um contexto de rápida queda da fecundidade adolescente

¿Converge la fecundidad en Brasil y Argentina? Un enfoque desde las desigualdades

Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes

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