Avaliação setorial do uso da água no Brasil: uma análise de equilíbrio geral computável (CGE)

Abstract

Tabela J.1Mudança na área irrigada por cultura e região-CEN 1-(Diferença Acumulada, Mha).

São Francisco River Transposition Project: Socio‐economic impacts in Brazilian Northeast semi‐arid region

“…Still considering the methodological aspects, it is noteworthy that, it would be unfeasible to adopt water as a primary factor-such as the TERM-H 2 0, by Wittwer (2012)-with reasonable parameters with the regional disaggregation used in TERM-NEPISF due to data unavailability. In addition, other studies made use of versions of the TERM for infrastructure/investment and water resources issues in a similar fashion as proposed here, such as: Domingues et al (2007), Ribeiro (2015), Magalhães et al (2016), Ferrarini (2017, Santos et al (2019), among others.…”

“…12 After the investment, we expected better water infrastructure and greater supply of water to the region improving agricultural productivity. 13 Hence, based on estimates by Ferrarini (2017) for the productivity of agricultural crops for irrigated and rainfed areas, the total factor productivity change was exogenously determined for nine agricultural sectors (rice and wheat, corn in grain, cotton, sugar cane, soybean in grain, Other temporary crops, orange, coffee in grain, other crops permanent) in the nine regions that comprise the DIA. It is worth mentioning that the DIA encompasses the seven mesoregions that make up the DAA plus two other mesoregions (Jaguaribe and Central Potiguar).…”

“…where GProd total i, r ð Þ is the value of the productivity gain shock (in percentage) by sector i and region r. GMP irr is the average percentage gain in agriculture productivity of irrigated areas versus rainfed areas, based on Ferrarini (2017) estimates. APNIrr i, r ð Þ represents the non-irrigated planted area, in hectares, by sector i in region r. ATP i, r ð Þ is the total planted area in hectares, by sector i in region r.…”

“…Shocks were measured according to Equation : where is the value of the productivity gain shock (in percentage) by sector and region . is the average percentage gain in agriculture productivity of irrigated areas versus rainfed areas, based on Ferrarini (2017) estimates. represents the non‐irrigated planted area, in hectares, by sector in region .…”

O Papel do Brasil no comércio internacional de Água Virtual : uma análise de insumo-produto

“…De forma agregada, os resultados mostraram que 38% de toda a água utilizada na economia está incorporado aos produtos destinados à exportação; o consumo das famílias representa 58%; e o consumo da administração pública, juntamente com a formação bruta de capital fixo, representou 4% do consumo total. Ferrarini (2017) utilizou um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para identificar como expansões de área irrigada no país aumentariam o uso da água regionalmente. Os resultados indicaram um aumento no uso de água nas regiões hidrográficas do Tocantins-Araguaia (Tocantins, Pará, Mato Grosso e Goiás) e no Atlântico Nordeste Ocidental (Maranhão e Pará).…”