Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960–2010

Jackman, Charles H.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Mertens, Christopher J.; Fleming, Eric L.

doi:10.5194/acp-16-5853-2016

Cited by 37 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Energetic particles have the ability to produce odd nitrogen and odd hydrogen species, NO Dorman, 2004), so that they penetrate deep into the atmosphere. Their influence is largest in the polar lower stratosphere and upper troposphere (Calisto et al, 2011;Jackman et al, 2016;Mironova et al, 2015). Their intensity is anticorrelated with the solar activity (Bazilevskaya et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m −2 , respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m −2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…The model has full stratospheric chemistry, and its computational efficiency makes it a very useful tool for performing numerous sensitivity tests. The model has undergone extensive improvement and evaluation over the years (e.g., Bacmeister et al, 1995;Considine et al, 1994;Fleming et al, 2007Fleming et al, , 2011Fleming et al, , 2015Jackman et al, 1996Jackman et al, , 2016Rosenfield et al, 1997Rosenfield et al, , 2002 and is shown to provide realistic ozone responses to chlorine perturbations. A model description and evaluation of the baseline simulation of CFC-11 and ozone is provided in Appendix A.…”

Section: Model Simulations and Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Continuing CFC‐11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone

et al. 2020

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Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC‐11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone‐depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC‐11 emissions have been near constant or increasing since 2002. In this study, we use a two‐dimensional chemistry‐climate model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a range of future CFC‐11 emissions scenarios. A scenario with future emissions sustained at 10 gigagrams per year (Gg/year) above the baseline WMO (2018) A1 scenario results in minor additional global (90°S–90°N) ozone depletion of 0.13% by 2100, and a 1.5‐year delay in the global ozone recovery to 1980 levels, relative to the baseline. A scenario with 72.5 Gg/year (the 2013–2016 average) sustained to 2100 results in a substantial 15% increase in effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine and nearly 1% additional global ozone depletion by 2100, with a 7.5‐year delay in the recovery to 1980 global ozone levels, relative to the baseline. The ozone response averaged over time has a strong linear dependence on the cumulative amount of future CFC‐11 emissions under a wide range of scenarios. The resulting ozone response sensitivity gives a simple metric relating the time‐averaged ozone change to the cumulative CFC‐11 emissions. This sensitivity has an inverse dependence on future greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, and N2O). For the medium Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway‐6.0 scenario, the sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of cumulative CFC‐11 emissions is −0.1% and −1% for global and Antarctic spring ozone, respectively.

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“…The influence of GCRs on atmospheric chemistry has been investigated in several model studies (Krivolutsky et al, 2002;Rozanov et al, 2012;Mironova et al, 2015;Jackman et al, 2016). GCR-induced ozone reductions of more than 10 % in the tropopause region and up to a few percent in the polar lower stratosphere have been reported.…”

Section: Galactic Cosmic Raysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

et al. 2017

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Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

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Atmospheric changes caused by galactic cosmic rays over the period 1960–2010

Cited by 37 publications

References 57 publications

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

The Impact of Continuing CFC‐11 Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone

Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2)

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