[1] We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the ''efficacy'' of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO 2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH 4 has efficacy $110%, which increases to $145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H 2 O and tropospheric O 3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of $0.8 W/m 2 for the period 1750-2000 and making CH 4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO 2 . Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy $58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy $78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880-2000. Responses to localized forcings, such as land use change and heavy regional concentrations of BC aerosols, include more specific regional characteristics. We suggest that anthropogenic tropospheric O 3 and the BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic. As a complement to a priori forcings, such as Fi, Fa, and Fs, we tabulate the a posteriori effective forcing, Fe, which is the product of the forcing and its efficacy. Fe requires calculation of the climate response and introduces greater model dependence, but once it is calculated for a given amount of a forcing agent it provides a good prediction of the response to other forcing amounts.

Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...

Estimates made in the 1970's indicated that a supernova occurring within tens of parsecs of Earth could have significant effects on the ozone layer. Since that time, improved tools for detailed modeling of atmospheric chemistry have been developed to calculate ozone depletion, and advances have been made in theoretical modeling of supernovae and of the resultant gamma-ray spectra. In addition, one now has better knowledge of the occurrence rate of supernovae in the galaxy, and of the spatial distribution of progenitors to core-collapse supernovae. We report here the results of two-dimensional atmospheric model calculations that take as input the spectral energy distribution of a supernova, adopting various distances from Earth and various latitude impact angles. In separate simulations we calculate the ozone depletion due to both gamma-rays and cosmic rays. We find that for the combined ozone depletion roughly to double the ``biologically active'' UV flux received at the surface of the Earth, the supernova must occur at <8 pc. Based on the latest data, the time-averaged galactic rate of core-collapse supernovae occurring within 8 pc is ~1.5/Gyr. In comparing our calculated ozone depletions with those of previous studies, we find them to be significantly less severe than found by Ruderman (1974), and consistent with Whitten et al. (1976). In summary, given the amplitude of the effect, the rate of nearby supernovae, and the ~Gyr time scale for multicellular organisms on Earth, this particular pathway for mass extinctions may be less important than previously thought.Comment: 24 pages, 4 Postscript figures, to appear in The Astrophysical Journal, 2003 March 10, vol. 58

) in an analysis of potential "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with climate.Detailed diagnostics for several of these simulations are available from the repository for IPCC runs (www-pcmdi.llnl. gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php). Diagnostics for all of these runs, including convenient graphics, are available at data.giss.nasa.gov/ modelE/transient.Sect. 2 defines the climate model and summarizes principal known deficiencies. Sect. 3 defines time-dependent climate forcings and discusses uncertainties. Sect. 4 considers alternative ways of sampling the model's simulated temperature change for comparison with imperfect observations. Sect. 5 compares simulated and observed climate change for 880-2003, focusing on temperature change but including other climate variables. Sect. 6 summarizes the capabilities and limitations of the current simulations and suggests efforts that are needed to improve future capabilities. Climate Model Atmospheric ModelThe atmospheric model employed here is the 20-layer version of GISS modelE (2006) with 4°×5° horizontal resolution. This resolution is coarse, but use of second-order moments for numerical differencing improves the effective resolution for the transport of tracers. The model top is at 0. hPa. Minimal drag is applied in the stratosphere, as needed for numerical stability, without gravity wave modeling. Stratospheric zonal winds and temperature are generally realistic ( Ocean RepresentationsWe find it instructive to attach the identical atmospheric model to alternative ocean representations. We make calcula- AbstractWe carry out climate simulations for 880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. The gamma radiation from a burst within a few kiloparsecs would quickly deplete much of the Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar UVB radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, damaging DNA and causing sunburn. In addition, NO 2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO 2 opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO 3 . For the ''typical'' nearest burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 yr after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. The impact scales with the total fluence of the GRB at the Earth but is insensitive to the time of day of the burst and its duration (1-1000 s). We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, well above lethal levels for simple life forms such as phytoplankton. The greatest damage occurs at mid-to low latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed, lasting several years. We discuss how these results support the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB.

[1] The large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth and impacted the middle atmospheric polar cap regions. Although occurring near the end of the maximum of solar cycle 23, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years happened 28-31 October 2003. The highly energetic protons associated with the SPEs produced ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which led to the production of odd hydrogen (HO x ) and odd nitrogen (NO y ). NO x (NO + NO 2 ) was observed by the UARS HALOE instrument to increase over 20 ppbv throughout the Southern Hemisphere polar lower mesosphere. The NOAA 16 SBUV/2 instrument measured a short-term ozone depletion of 40% in the Southern Hemisphere polar lower mesosphere, probably a result of the HO x increases. SBUV/2 observations showed ozone depletions of 5-8% in the southern polar upper stratosphere lasting days beyond the events, most likely a result of the NO y enhancements. Longer-term Northern Hemisphere polar total ozone decreases of >0.5% were predicted to last for over 8 months past the events with the Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional model. Although the production of NO y constituents is the same in both hemispheres, the NO y constituents have a much larger impact in the northern than the southern polar latitudes because of the seasonal differences between the two hemispheres. These observations and model computations illustrate the substantial impact of solar protons on the polar neutral middle atmosphere.

spheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NO y and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications for the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH 4 and CO) fields.Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5 % with the observations. Simulated NO y enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30 % higher than indicated by the observations which are likely to be related to deficiencies in the used ionization rates, though other error sources related to the models' atmospheric background state and/or transport schemes cannot be excluded. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO y partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO 3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H 2 O 2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO 2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 9090 B. Funke et al.: HEPPA intercomparison study differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO 2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations cause a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.

Abstract. Solar eruptions sometimes produce protons, which impact the Earth's atmosphere. These solar proton events (SPEs) generally last a few days and produce high energy particles that precipitate into the Earth's atmosphere. The protons cause ionization and dissociation processes that ultimately lead to an enhancement of odd-hydrogen and oddnitrogen in the polar cap regions (>60 • geomagnetic latitude). We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3) to study the atmospheric impact of SPEs over the period . The very largest SPEs were found to be the most important and caused atmospheric effects that lasted several months after the events. We present the short-and medium-term (days to a few months) atmospheric influence of the four largest SPEs in the past 45 years (August 1972;October 1989; as computed by WACCM3 and observed by satellite instruments. Polar mesospheric NO x (NO+NO 2 ) increased by over 50 ppbv and mesospheric ozone decreased by over 30% during these very large SPEs. Changes in HNO 3 , N 2 O 5 , ClONO 2 , HOCl, and ClO were indirectly caused by the very large SPEs in October-November 2003, were simulated by WACCM3, and previously measured by Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). WACCM3 output was also represented by sampling with the MIPAS averaging kernel for a more valid comparison. Although qualitatively similar, there are discrepancies between the model and measurement with WACCM3 predicted HNO 3 and ClONO 2 enhancements being smaller than measured and N 2 O 5 enhancements being larger than measured. The HOCl enhancements were fairly Correspondence to: C. H. Jackman (charles.h.jackman@nasa.gov) similar in amounts and temporal variation in WACCM3 and MIPAS. WACCM3 simulated ClO decreases below 50 km, whereas MIPAS mainly observed increases, a very perplexing difference. Upper stratospheric and lower mesospheric NO x increased by over 10 ppbv and was transported during polar night down to the middle stratosphere in several weeks past the SPE. The WACCM3 simulations confirmed the SH HALOE observations of enhanced NO x in September 2000 as a result of the July 2000 SPE and the NH SAGE II observations of enhanced NO 2 in March 1990 as a result of the October 1989 SPEs.