No abstract

The X-Ray Spectrometer (XRS) has been designed to provide the Suzaku Observatory with non-dispersive, high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy. As designed, the instrument covers the energy range 0.3 to 12 keV, which encompasses the most diagnostically rich part of the X-ray band. The sensor consists of a 32-channel array of X-ray microcalorimeters, each with an energy resolution of about 6 eV. The very low temperature required for operation of the array (60 mK) is provided by a four-stage cooling system containing a single-stage adiabatic demagnetization refrigerator, a superfluid-helium cryostat, a solid-neon dewar, and a single-stage, Stirling-cycle cooler. The Suzaku/XRS is the first orbiting X-ray microcalorimeter spectrometer and was designed to last more than three years in orbit. The early verification phase of the mission demonstrated that the instrument worked properly and that the cryogen consumption rate was low enough to ensure a mission lifetime exceeding 3 years. However, the liquid-He cryogen was completely vaporized two weeks after opening the dewar guard vacuum vent. The problem has been traced to inadequate venting of the dewar He and Ne gases out of the spacecraft and into space. In this paper we present the design and ground testing of the XRS instrument, and then describe the in-flight performance. An energy resolution of 6 eV was achieved during pre-launch tests and a resolution of 7 eV was obtained in orbit. The slight degradation is due to the effects of cosmic rays.

The warming observed in the early 20th century (1910-1940) is one of the most intriguing and less understood climate anomalies of the 20th century. To investigate the contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to changes in the surface temperature, we performed seven model experiments using the chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean SOCOL3-MPIOM. Contributions of energetic particle precipitation, heavily (shortwave UV) and weakly (longwave UV, visible, and infrared) absorbed solar irradiances, well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), tropospheric ozone precursors, and volcanic eruptions were considered separately. Model results suggest only about 0.3 K of global and annual mean warming during the considered 1910-1940 period, which is smaller than the trend obtained from observations by about 25%. We found that half of the simulated global warming is caused by the increase of WMGHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O), while the increase of the weakly absorbed solar irradiance is responsible for approximately one third of the total warming. Because the behavior of WMGHGs is well constrained, only higher solar forcing or the inclusion of new forcing mechanisms can help to reach better agreement with observations. The other forcing agents considered (heavily absorbed UV, energetic particles, volcanic eruptions, and tropospheric ozone precursors) contribute less than 20% to the annual and global mean warming; however, they can be important on regional/seasonal scales.

Abstract. In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m −2 , respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m −2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.