Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

Demir, Ender; Simonyan, Serdar; Chen, Ming Hsiang; Lau, Chi Keung Marco

doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006

Cited by 35 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…On the other hand, that positive shocks in geopolitical risk are effective on both positive and negative shocks on the number of the Foreign entrance while negative shocks in geopolitical risk have only effect on positive shocks on Number of the Foreign entrance. These results are similar to the studies of , Demir et al (2020), Lee et al (2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…They also stated that geopolitical risks are an obstacle to the development of the tourism sector. Demir et al (2020) explored the impact of geopolitical risk on tourist arrivals. The data, perid for 1990-2018 were analyzed by using the NARDL test.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These risks, which are generally referred to as geopolitical risks, cause problems such as wars, terrorist incidents, tensions, risks related to ethnic and political violence, and a decrease in the flow of tourism to these regions by greatly affecting the socio-economic environment (Balli, Uddin, & Shahzad, 2019). When geopolitical risks increase in a country, tourists' concerns about their personal safety lead them to delay or cancel their travel plans (Demir, Simonyan, Chen, & Marco Lau, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

Polat

Alptürk

Gürsoy

2021

Journal of Tourism Theory and Research

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This study aims to explore the effects of geopolitical risk on the Borsa İstanbul (BIST) tourism index and tourist arrivals. The effects of the geopolitical risk index on the BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals were analyzed based on the data between January 1998 and October 2020, and the findings were presented. Time series analysis methods were used in the study. To investigate the relationship between variables, it was first tested whether the series of variables are stationary or not. Then, Lee-Strazicich unit root test was applied, considering the structural breaks. Finally, the causality relationship between variables and the direction of this relationship was determined by the Hatemi-J causality test. According to the findings, there is an asymmetrical relationship between Turkey's geopolitical risks with BIST tourism index. The increase in Turkey's geopolitical risks, causes a significant decrease in tourism BIST returns. Likewise, when the risk decreases, BIST tourism returns increase. On the other hand, the reduction of geopolitical risk in Turkey causes an increase in tourist arrivals.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

Polat

Alptürk

Gürsoy

2021

Journal of Tourism Theory and Research

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“…In a more recent study, Demir et al (2020), in the case of Turkey, employed the NARDL model to examine the asymmetric impact of GPRs on tourist inflows from January 1990 to December 2018 and used monthly data used on the basis of the GPR index, which was developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2018), to measure GPR. They found an asymmetric and significant effect of the GPR index in the short run where an increase in GPR index reduces tourist arrivals; meanwhile, a decrease in proxy has no effect in the short run.…”

Section: Brief Literature Reviewsmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED: The Impact of Geopolitical and Pandemic Risks on Tourist Inflows: Evidence From Asia-Pacific Region

Wang

Khan

Mouldi

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of major risks such as geopolitical and pandemic risks on tourism industry in selected countries of Asia-Pacific. The results were obtained using a sample of 10 neighboring countries in the period of 1996 to 2018. Diagnostic tests confirmed the existence of spatial interaction between model variables for these countries. According to the results, the economic growth, internally and in neighboring countries, leads to an increase in the influx of tourists. Whereas increased domestic prices will reduce the influx of domestic tourists, rising prices in neighboring countries intensify tourists’ arrival of the country. Furthermore, results reveal that domestic geopolitical and pandemic risks lead to a decrease in tourist arrivals. In addition, whereas pandemic risks in neighboring countries do not have a significant effect on tourist arrivals, geopolitical risks in neighboring countries lead to more domestic tourists’ arrival.

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“…Turkey's currency crises during the period in question were coupled with the global liquidity conditions, banking sector weaknesses, fiscal imbalances, as well as capital outflow (Feridun 2008). Accordingly, an increase in geopolitical risks reduces tourist arrivals within the short run in Turkey, but a decrease in the Geopolitical Risk Index has no effect in the short run, and there is evidence of an asymmetric effect in the long run (Demir et al 2020). However, Turkey's severe debt crisis brought about a series of negotiations and debt rescheduling agreements with its creditors because the debt issues were considered necessary in order to resolve the issues and to implement the necessary economic reforms (Onder 1990).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price Level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New Insight from the Global Value Chains

Shuabiu

Usman

Çavuşoğlu

2021

JRFM

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Currently, global value chains (GVCs) are increasingly shaping the global economy, covering a growing share of international trade, GDP, and employment globally. Global trade is impacted by the emergence of GVCs in areas as diverse as commodities, electronics, and business service outsourcing, among other areas, since the countries involved in the GVCs hold some value(s) and benefit(s) from the exports of the finished product. In this study, the nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New insight from the GVCs is investigated using annual data from 1980 to 2020 within the framework of the ARDL bound test, Bayer and Hanck Cointegration (BHC) test, and ECM. The study results revealed that the relationship among real effective exchange rate, exports, and imports induced economic performance and external trade competitiveness particularly when directed at GVCs in both the short and long run. The study recommends that policies enhancing a 10% equilibrium convergence are required annually to competitively minimize the dependence on foreign value-added inputs by importing only world-class inputs for value addition and exports benefits in the competitive GVCs world. Furthermore, monetary policy, GVCs, and economic growth should be investigated.

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Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey's tourist arrivals

Cited by 35 publications

References 11 publications

Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey

RETRACTED: The Impact of Geopolitical and Pandemic Risks on Tourist Inflows: Evidence From Asia-Pacific Region

The Nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price Level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New Insight from the Global Value Chains

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