To solve the active macroeconomic challenges of remittances, human capital flight, and brain drain facing Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from the perspective of costs and benefits tradeoffs for achieving Sustainable Development Goal eight (SDGs-8) targets by 2030 and the recipient communities’ wellbeing, this study investigates the sustainable economic growth in SSA: Do remittances, human capital flight, and brain drain matter? Autoregressive-Distributive Lag (ARDL) and the Error-Correction Mechanism (ECM) were used. Thus, this research is led by push–pull, altruism, and social network theories. The ARDL showed that remittances and trade positively affect economic growth. However, human capital flight, poverty, corruption, and inequality negatively affect economic growth. The co-efficient of ECTt−1 is ascertained to be negative (−0.266282) with a significant statistical value of 1% (i.e., 0.0123). Therefore, the annual requirement to restore equilibrium convergence is 26.62%. The study concludes that SSA may achieve their sustainable economic growth target, particularly by formalizing remittances and human capital flight and brain drain into the financial, economic system in SSA by 2030, since restoration to long-term convergence will take less than nine years. Enabling a labor market that offers decent work and wages, along with trade and remittance policies for sustainable growth, are recommended.
Currently, food security is becoming a fundamental problem in the global macroeconomic dynamics for policymakers and governments in developing countries. Globally, food security offers challenges both from achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets and the welfare perspective of many poor households. As a result, this study is guided by Neo Malthusian and Access theories to investigate Food Security Sustainability: a Synthesis of the Current Concepts and Empirical Approaches for Meeting SDGs in Nigeria using ARDL and ECM techniques. The ARDL revealed that agricultural value-added and GDP positively affect food security for commercial agrarian investments in Nigeria. However, internal displacement, population growth, food inflation, and exchange rate volatility negatively affect sustainable food security in Nigeria. The model’s coefficient of ECMt−1 also shows negative (−0.0130 approximately) and statistically significant (0.0000) at 1%. Thus, the speed of adjustment requires 1.3% annually for the long-run equilibrium convergence to be restored. The study concludes that the SDGs targets for poverty and hunger reduction, mainly for food security sustainability alongside small producers by the year 2030, can be rarely achieved because the convergence to equilibrium is more than nine years. An active value-addition strategy for sustainable food security and the provision of humanitarian interventions are recommended.
Currency fluctuations and inflation are the natural norm for most major economies. Numerous factors influence economic growth, including a country’s exchange rate system performance, the outlook for inflation, and interest rate differentials. These are the most significant factors that hinder the economic growth of every nation. As a result, this analysis investigates the impact of exchange rate and inflation on Nigeria’s growth performance from 1986 to 2021. Impulse response and variance decomposition were estimated. The real gross domestic product (RGDP) was used as a proxy for growth performance, while the inflation rate (IFNR), real exchange rate (REXR), and interest rate (INTR) were also used as proxies. The results of impulse response and variance decomposition estimates in the short-run (third quarter) and long-run (tenth quarter) show that real exchange rate D(REXR), INTR, and IFNR all have a positive impact on RGDP variation, with values of 13.38%, 31.88%, and 22.40%, respectively, in the third quarter. In the long run (the 10th quarter), REXR contributed approximately 28.76% of the variation in RGDP. The interest rate contributed 24.14%, while the IFNR has contributed about 28.27% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Therefore, summing the contributions of REXR, INTR, and INFR to RGDP, these variables contributed about 81.17% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Hence, the research concluded that REXR, INTR, and IFNR have a positive effect on growth performance as proxied by RGDP in Nigeria within the period of the research. The research recommended that the government should provide a policy that will reduce the excess growth of aggregate demand (AD) in the economy, which will reduce inflationary pressure, in order to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 in Nigeria, which include restoring economic growth and macroeconomic stability through macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and other significant variables.
Currency fluctuations and inflation are the natural norm for most major economies. Numerous factors influenceeconomic growth, including a country’s exchange rate system performance, the outlook for inflation, and interestrate differentials. These are the most significant factors that hinder the economic growth of every nation. As aresult, this analysis investigates the impact of exchange rate and inflation on Nigeria’s growth performance from1986 to 2021. Impulse response and variance decomposition were estimated. The real gross domestic product(RGDP) was used as a proxy for growth performance, while the inflation rate (IFNR), real exchange rate (REXR),and interest rate (INTR) were also used as proxies. The results of impulse response and variance decompositionestimates in the short-run (third quarter) and long-run (tenth quarter) show that real exchange rate D(REXR), INTR,and IFNR all have a positive impact on RGDP variation, with values of 13.38, 31.88, and 22.40%, respectively,in the third quarter. In the long run (the 10th quarter), REXR contributed approximately 28.76% of the variationin RGDP. The interest rate contributed 24.14%, while the IFNR has contributed about 28.27% of the variation inRGDP in the long run. Therefore, summing the contributions of REXR, INTR, and INFR to RGDP, these variablescontributed about 81.17% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Hence, the research concluded that REXR,INTR, and IFNR have a positive effect on growth performance as proxied by RGDP in Nigeria within the periodof the research. The research recommended that the government should provide a policy that will reduce theexcess growth of aggregate demand (AD) in the economy, which will reduce inflationary pressure, in order toachieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 in Nigeria, which include restoring economic growthand macroeconomic stability through macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and othersignificant variables.
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