Assessment of uncertainties and variations in PV modules degradation rates and lifetime predictions using physical models

Kaaya, Ismail; Ascencio‐Vásquez, Julián; Weiß, Karl-Anders; Topič, Marko

doi:10.1016/j.solener.2021.01.071

Cited by 51 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This estimated increase in GHG emissions can be mainly attributed to the increase in module temperature as the module temperature shows a significant increase compared to solar irradiation. Moreover, the module temperature has the highest influence on the degradation rates compared to other degradation stress factors [32,33].…”

Section: Assessing the Impact Of Climate Change On The Ghg Emissions ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The environmental footprint of photovoltaic electricity is usually assessed using nominated power or life cycle energy output. If performance degradation is considered, a linear reduction in lifetime energy output is assumed. However, research has shown that the decrease in energy output over time does not necessarily follow a linear degradation pattern but can vary at different points in the module’s lifetime. Further, photovoltaic modules follow different degradation patterns in different climate zones. In this study, we address the influence of different degradation aspects on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PV electricity. Firstly, we apply different non-linear degradation scenarios to evaluate the GHG emissions and show that the differences in GHG emissions in comparison to a linear degradation can be up to 6.0%. Secondly, we use the ERA5 dataset generated by the ECMWF to calculate location-dependent degradation rates and apply them to estimate the location-specific GHG emissions. Due to the reduction in lifetime energy output, there is a direct correlation between the calculated degradation rate and GHG emissions. Thirdly, we assess the impact of climate change on degradation rates and on the respective GHG emissions of photovoltaic electricity using different climate change scenarios. In a best-case scenario, the GHG emissions are estimated to increase by around 5% until the year 2100 and by around 105% by 2100 for a worst-case scenario.

show abstract

Section: Assessing the Impact Of Climate Change On The Ghg Emissions ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, they focus on PLR itself, not the performance metrics. In [9], the authors try to understand sources of uncertainties in PV degradation rates using physical degradation models. They show that there are three major sources of uncertainties: climate variables estimation, PV modules reliability, and statistical methods for calculating PLRs.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Existing studies address this issue only partially. Some studies examine performance metrics only in terms of uncertainty [7][8][9][10]. Regarding the statistical methods, some studies try to understand the sources of uncertainties [9] and the impact of missing data [11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies examine performance metrics only in terms of uncertainty [7][8][9][10]. Regarding the statistical methods, some studies try to understand the sources of uncertainties [9] and the impact of missing data [11]. Although some studies propose new performance metrics and statical methods for better PLRs [12][13][14][15][16][17], a comparison with existing well-known methods is missing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Comparative analysis of photovoltaic performance metrics for reliable performance loss rate

Lee

Kim

et al. 2022

IET Renewable Power Gen

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A reliable performance loss rate of photovoltaic systems requires accurate and reliable performance metrics. This study proposes a systematic method for assessing the performance metrics, particularly predicted power models in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. The gist of the proposed method is to examine how accurately a predicted power model predicts the manipulated degradation in a controlled environment. For this, the proposed method divides a given dataset evenly into base data (to generate reference performance) and test data (to generate test performance via manipulation) so that the two data have similar features. The proposed method also utilizes the bootstrap iteration to derive a reliable assessment. The novelty of this study is that the proposed method estimates both the accuracy and uncertainty of arbitrary predicted power models, which is missing in existing works. Extensive experiments using the proposed method with real-world datasets reveal the followings. One interesting observation is that a well-known machine learning prediction model, not considered in existing works, exhibits the best performance in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Existing predicted power models require different experiment settings to produce reliable performance. The number of test data is closely related to uncertainty, but not much related to accuracy.

show abstract

“…Consequently, irradiation details are more important for yield calculations, while that is not the individual and dominant element [17]. Nonetheless, it is considered for about 50% of the total uncertainty [18,19]. The ground measurements have the highest accuracy of irradiation data for PV models [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Techno-Economic Analysis and New Design of a Photovoltaic Power Plant by a Direct Radiation Amplification System

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Today, photovoltaic panels are used in various applications, and increasing their efficiency is of interest to many researchers. In this research, we try to increase the radiation density by increasing direct radiation to finally increase the energy production in photovoltaic power plants. The direct radiation amplification system is used to improve the photovoltaic efficiency. In this proposed system, energy and economics are analyzed by MATLAB software. Also, prototype testing and photovoltaic power plant testing are examined. The results show that by implementing this system in photovoltaic power plants, annual energy production can be increased. By adding this system to a photovoltaic power plant, the price of electricity produced in photovoltaic power plants will be increased from 13 ¢/kWh to 9 ¢/kWh, which shows a 31% reduction in the price of electricity per kilowatt-hour.

show abstract

Assessment of uncertainties and variations in PV modules degradation rates and lifetime predictions using physical models

Cited by 51 publications

References 36 publications

The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis

The Influence of Different Degradation Characteristics on the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Silicon Photovoltaics: A Threefold Analysis

Comparative analysis of photovoltaic performance metrics for reliable performance loss rate

Techno-Economic Analysis and New Design of a Photovoltaic Power Plant by a Direct Radiation Amplification System

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About