Assessment of tsunami resilience of Haydarpaşa Port in the Sea of Marmara by high-resolution numerical modeling

Abstract

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world's oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested domains in 3-m and 1-m resolutions and the water elevations computed from the previous simulations were inputted from the border of the large domain. A tsunami numerical code, NAMI DANCE, was used in the simulations. The tsunami parameters in the highest resolution were computed in and around the port. The effect of the data resolution on the computed results has been presented. The performance of the port structures and possible effects of tsunami on port operations have been discussed. Since the harbor protection structures have not been designed to withstand tsunamis, the breakwaters' stability becomes one of the major concerns for less agitation and inundation under tsunami in Haydarpaşa Port for resilience. The flow depth, momentum fluxes, and current pattern are the other concerns that cause unexpected circulations and uncontrolled movements of objects on land and vessels in the sea.

Tsunami risk perception, a state-of-the-art review with a focus in the NEAM region

“…Another reason contributing to underrating the tsunami risk is the general belief that "small" tsunamis are not really dangerous. People often tend to identify the tsunami risk with the huge waves that occurred in Sumatra in 2004 or in Japan in 2011, while the occurrence of less relevant tsunamis (with one-2 m of runup) is neglected, even if these are by far more likely to occur than the abovementioned ones (Alam, 2016;Aytore et al, 2016;Constantin et al, 2017;Goeldner-Gianella et al, 2017;Cerase et al, 2019;Hall et al, 2019).…”

Simulation of large plausible tsunami scenarios associated with the 2019 Durres (Albania) earthquake source and adjacent seismogenic zones

“…Modelling tsunamis generated from earthquakes is one of the most significant steps of the tsunami hazard assessment, which is carried out based on the identified seismogenic sources, bathymetric, and topographic data of adequate resolution, and the selection of plausible scenarios (Aytore et al 2016).…”

Assessment of Tsunami-related Geohazard Assessment for Coasts of Hersek Peninsula and Gulf of İzmit

“…SoM is located on the western extension of the NAFZ which is one of the most important active faults with strike-slip characteristics, which are not likely to generate tsunami. However, in the light of tsunami catalogs based on historical documents, it is possible to say that SoM has tsunamigenic potential (Aytöre, et al, 2016). The historical seismicity in SoM is extremely high, especially for the northern branch of the emerged NAF (Hébert et al, 2005).…”

“…TSLC is the largest candidate for submarine landslide as a product of NAF tectonics in the region or will develop independently. According to studies (Alpar et al, 2003;Hébert et al, 2005;Kılınç, 2008;Aytöre, 2016;Gazioğlu et al, 2016) that modeled the effects of landslide, the tsunami wave from TSLC originating from the western coasts of the HePe will rise in the narrow channel with waves moving into the Goİ.…”