Assessment of the response of subaqueous methane hydrate deposits to possible climate change in the twenty-first century

Denisov, S. N.; Arzhanov, M. M.; Елисеев, А. В.; Мохов, И. И.

doi:10.1134/s1028334x11120129

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In [7], however, it is hypothesized that the observed recent decade Arctic warming with a maximum in the East Siberian sector may be due to a methane emission increase, which occurs just in this sector. A significant increase in the methane flux due to permafrost degradation on land and on the sea floor is also expected according to [8] and [9]. The increase in the flux of carbon bearing species, including meth ane, in an expected warmer climate in the 21st century would also occur in accordance with [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Influence of methane sources in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes on the interhemispheric asymmetry of its atmospheric concentration and climate

Volodin

2015

Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys.

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Numerical experiments with the INMCM4 climate model have shown that the observed 10% dif ference in the lower tropospheric methane concentration between the Arctic and the Southern Hemisphere can be reproduced in a climate model in which only the present day spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane emissions and calculated emissions from wet ecosystems are considered. In model runs with an additional 50 or 100 Mt/year methane emission in the Arctic, the difference in atmospheric methane con centrations between the Arctic and the Southern Hemisphere is higher than the observed one. An additional methane emission of 4000 Mt/year in the Arctic is shown to result in an increase of 1.5° in global mean sur face air temperature. The spatial distribution of warming is similar to that induced by an increase in the car bon dioxide concentration, depends on the global mean methane concentration, and does not depend at all on where the additional methane source lies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Influence of methane sources in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes on the interhemispheric asymmetry of its atmospheric concentration and climate

Volodin

2015

Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys.

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“…The simulation of the offshore permafrost thickness evolution used in this study is based on the one-dimensional solution of Stephan's problem with mixed boundary conditions 6,23 . The model takes into account the latent heat at the phase change boundary through adjustment of the volumetric heat capacity when the sediment temperature approaches 0°C.…”

Section: Description Of the Permafrost Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We follow the commonly assumed point of view 6 and suppose that the ground does not contain salt. Mathematical implementation and the code follow are borrowed from 23 . The time-dependent change of the temperature is calculated by an explicit finite difference scheme.…”

Section: Description Of the Permafrost Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of the dynamics subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf under the past and the future climate changes

Malakhova

Golubeva

2014

20th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics

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The recent and the future warming in the Arctic may have a potential to cause rapid changes in the Earth's system. The global warming could lead to destabilization of the subsea permafrost and cause a release of methane into the water column. The state of permafrost in the Arctic is the key to understanding whether the methane, stored in the permafrostrelated gas hydrate, can escape to the atmosphere.Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of submarine permafrost and methane hydrate stability zone in the sediments of the East Siberian Arctic shelf are reported. The thickness of permafrost on the shelf is 170 -320 m for the geothermal heat flux 60 mW/m 2 according to the results of experiments. The permafrost modeling indicates that after the seafloor warming from 1948 to 2012 the permafrost deepening down to 1-25 m. A significant degradation of the subsea permafrost down to 10 -70 m is expected in the next 50 -100 years.

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“…We use the model for thermal state of subsea sediments, which was initially developed by Denisov et al (2011) and further extended by Eliseev et al (2015) and by Malakhova and Golubeva (2016). The model solves the one-dimensional equation for heat diffusion in sediment column subject to prescribed temperature at the sediment-ocean interface and prescribed heat flux at the bottom boundary.…”

Section: Simulations With Stratified Shelf Topologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to direct measurements at the Eurasian Arctic shelf, subsea permafrost top is deeper 5 for points with larger distance from the shoreline and, thus, which were flooded earlier during the last oceanic transgression (Overduin et al, 2015). However, for instance, Portnov et al (2014) assume instantaneous exposition and flooding over their whole study area despite the corresponding range of contemporary shelf depths from zero to about 60 m. Instantaneous flooding was assumed by Razumov et al (2014) for the depth range from 4 to 100 m. In addition, Denisov et al (2011) and Anisimov et al (2012) assume that permafrost, which was formed at shelf during the last glaciation, survives up to the present.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How sensitive are modeled contemporary subsea permafrost thaw and thickness of the methane clathrates stability zone in Eurasian Arctic to assumptions on Pleistocene glacial cycles?

Malakhova

Елисеев

2016

Preprint

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Abstract. Single-point simulations with a model for thermal state of subsea sediments driven by the forcing constructed from the ice core data show that the impact of initial conditions is lost after ∼ 100 kyr. The time scales of temperature propagation in sediments and respective permafrost response are ∼ 10 − 20 kyr which is longer than the present interglacial. The timings of shelf exposure during oceanic regressions and flooding during transgressions are important for representation of sediment thermal state and hydrates stability zone (HSZ). These timings should depend on the contemporary shelf depth (SD). During 5 glacial cycles temperature at the top of sediments is a major driver of HSZ vertical boundaries change for SD of few tens of meters, while the pressure exerted by oceanic water becomes more important for larger SD. Thus, even the existence of HSZ and its disappearance might not be easily tied to oceanic transgressions and regressions.

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Assessment of the response of subaqueous methane hydrate deposits to possible climate change in the twenty-first century

Cited by 16 publications

References 11 publications

Influence of methane sources in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes on the interhemispheric asymmetry of its atmospheric concentration and climate

Influence of methane sources in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes on the interhemispheric asymmetry of its atmospheric concentration and climate

Modeling of the dynamics subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf under the past and the future climate changes

How sensitive are modeled contemporary subsea permafrost thaw and thickness of the methane clathrates stability zone in Eurasian Arctic to assumptions on Pleistocene glacial cycles?

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