Modeling of the dynamics subsea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf under the past and the future climate changes

Abstract

The recent and the future warming in the Arctic may have a potential to cause rapid changes in the Earth's system. The global warming could lead to destabilization of the subsea permafrost and cause a release of methane into the water column. The state of permafrost in the Arctic is the key to understanding whether the methane, stored in the permafrostrelated gas hydrate, can escape to the atmosphere.Results of the mathematical modeling of the dynamics of submarine permafrost and methane hydrate stability zone in the sediments of the East Siberian Arctic shelf are reported. The thickness of permafrost on the shelf is 170 -320 m for the geothermal heat flux 60 mW/m 2 according to the results of experiments. The permafrost modeling indicates that after the seafloor warming from 1948 to 2012 the permafrost deepening down to 1-25 m. A significant degradation of the subsea permafrost down to 10 -70 m is expected in the next 50 -100 years.

Retracted: Organic Carbon Pools in the Subsea Permafrost Domain Since the Last Glacial Maximum

“…T E D top 10 to 70 m, where the majority of OC is stored, is at risk of thaw in the next 50-100 years (Malakhova & Golubeva, 2014).…”

“…During the past decades, substantial fluxes of CH 4 have been observed above subsea permafrost deposits across the Arctic (Kort et al, ; N. Shakhova et al, ), though it is not clear how much of this release is due to natural versus anthropogenic warming. Based on modeling projections, some deep deposits of subsea permafrost will persist for thousands of years (Portnov et al, ), but permafrost in the top 10 to 70 m, where the majority of OC is stored, is at risk of thaw in the next 50‐100 years (Malakhova & Golubeva, ).…”

Numerical simulation of forming temperature anomalies in the Laptev Sea due to the heat flow of the Lena River

“…Èíòåíñèâíîñòü ïðîöåññà äåãðàäàöèè ìíîãîëåòíåìåðçëûõ ïîðîä è îáðàçîâàíèå òàëèêîâ ñðåäè ïðî÷èõ ôàêòîðîâ îïðåäåëÿþòñÿ òåðìè÷åñêèì ðåaeèìîì ïðèäîííûõ âîä. Ðàñ÷åòû [7][8][9] ïîêàçûâàþò, ÷òî ïðè çàäàííûõ ñöåíàðíûõ ïîòåïëåíèÿõ è óâåëè÷åíèè òåìïåðàòóðû ïðèäîííîé âîäû äî ïîëîaeèòåëüíûõ çíà÷åíèé ïðîèñõîäÿò áîëåå áûñòðàÿ äåãðàäàöèÿ âåðõíåé ÷àñòè êðèîëèòîçîíû è îáðàçîâàíèå íåñêâîçíûõ òàëèêîâ ãëóáèíîé äî 60 ì.…”

Permafrost and Gas Hydrate Stability Zone of the Glacial Part of the East-Siberian Shelf

“…Later in the research performed by V.V. Malakhova [17][18][19], the approaches were developed and the evolution and current state of permafrost and the GHSZ of the Eastern Siberia shelf were under modeling.…”

“…The geological reasons determined methane emissions. Other calculations [17,29] have predicted methane emission amplification in the case of accelerated permafrost degradation from its table. Acceleration is determined by sea ice coverage reduction, bottom water temperature increase, and rivers heat flow.…”