Assessment and characterization of the monthly probabilities of rainfall in Midwest Brazil using different goodness-of-fit tests as probability density functions selection criteria

Abreu, Marcel Carvalho; Souza, Amaury de; Lyra, Guilherme Bastos; Júnior, José Francisco de Oliveira; Pobocikova, Ivana; Almeida, Laura Thebit de; Fraga, Micael de Souza; Aristone, Flávio; Cecílio, Roberto Avelino

doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04286-z

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Probability density functions (PDF) were used to obtain the maximum monthly probable rainfall, associated with the return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, before and after the breaking point in the time series. The PDFs used were Gumbel, 3‐parameters log‐normal and gamma (Abreu et al, 2023; Lima et al, 2021). PDFs were used after the suitable fit hypothesis obtained from the goodness‐of‐fit test of Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) (Abreu et al, 2022a; Masingi & Maposa, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Abreu,

de Souza Fraga,

Lyra

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study of rainfall trends is crucial for food security and water availability in Alagoas state, Northeast of Brazil. In this work, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall trends have been studied (1960–2016) for homogeneous rainfall regions over the eastern part of the Northeast Brazil (ENEB) and later related to climate variability. Cluster analysis was applied to identify homogeneous rainfall regions while the Mann–Kendall (MK), modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used in the analysis and identification of trends on a spatial and temporal scale. To relate rainfall and climate variability modes, Spearman's correlation was used in each homogeneous region. The rainfall series provided evidence of a general decrease in rainfall in the rainy period and an increase in the dry period, mainly over the driest region. The break points of time series occurred mostly in periods of great variations in values of modes of climate variability, especially the Monthly Niño3.4 Index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), both having a robust influence across the region. Moreover, the probable rainfall in the time series with trends was different in most months before and after the breakpoint. After the breakpoint, probable rainfall was lower, influenced by the breakpoint year (size of the series before and after the breakpoint), which mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s and presented a warm phase and a greater number of El Niño events. The MK and MMK trend tests showed the ability to detect trends, although there is no established standard on which test or version to use due to self‐correlated, nonhomogeneous series with nonrandom or nonindependent data. Rainfall is an important variable for water and food security and in the monitoring of natural disasters. The changes detected in this study can be used as reference information for public policies on water resources and future studies for Alagoas and similar regions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Abreu,

de Souza Fraga,

Lyra

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The application of the GEVD with respect to other distributions in the present investigation is justified because said distribution is the one that presents the most adequate adjustments and optimal statistical performances for the analysis of maximum rainfall extremes and their corresponding return periods, especially for rainy and seasonal periods, as indicated by research by Campos-Aranda (2018), Min & Halim (2020), Hossain et al (2021), Mohamed & Adam (2022) and Abreu et al (2023). Likewise, its location, scale, and shape parameters are better related to the climatic variables altitude and average rainfall, compared to other indicators of other distributions, which later helps to differentiate areas of greater or lesser rainfall, as well as its intensity, these results are in agreement with the findings of Campos-Aranda (2019) for Mexico, Guillén-Oviedo et al (2020) for Costa Rica, Mashishi et al (2020) for South Africa, Back & Bonfante (2021) for Brazil, Klassou & Komi (2021) for West Africa, Wang & Xuan (2021) for England and Australia, and Ulrich et al (2021) for Germany.…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessment of Parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution in Rainfall of the Peruvian North

Arriola Carrasco,

Villegas,

Fernandez

et al. 2023

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Las precipitaciones máximas del norte peruano se comportan de una manera estacional, concentrándose entre los primeros meses del año, sin embargo, pocos estudios han analizado su distribución a lo largo del tiempo mediante un análisis de extremos. El objetivo de la investigación fue evaluar los parámetros de ubicación, escala y forma de la distribución generalizada de valor extremo en precipitaciones máximas del norte peruano correspondientes a las regiones hidrológicas Pacífico 5 y Pacífico 6. Se realizó la recolección de datos de precipitaciones máximas diarias disponibles en las estaciones climáticas de ambas regiones, considerando una cantidad mínima de 15 años de registros por estación y un filtro basado en el análisis estadístico y visual, por lo que se estableció 138 estaciones. Posteriormente se aplicaron los ajustes a momentos ordinarios y a momentos lineales de la distribución generalizada de valor extremo y se utilizó dos tipos de prueba de hipótesis para cada región que ayudaron a validar las similitudes de cada parámetro en ambas regiones. Los resultados muestran diferencias significativas sólo en el parámetro de ubicación, en tanto, al contrastar la altitud, precipitación media y precipitación máxima de cada región hidrológica se determinó que existen altas correlaciones con los parámetros de ubicación y escala. Finalmente, se concluye en que ambas regiones hidrológicas los parámetros de escala y forma muestran un buen desempeño para ambos ajustes a partir de las hipótesis aplicadas y el parámetro de ubicación demostró que la región hidrológica Pacífico 6 es más lluviosa que la región hidrológica Pacífico 5.

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“…adherence of the Gumbel distribution to the data under investigation, the Anderson-Darling (AD) test was used at a signi cance level of α = 0.05. The nonparametric Anderson-Darling test seeks to weight more strongly the tails of the distributions and is an alternative to tests that have their power decreased in the tails(Naghettini and Pinto 2007;Abreu et al 2023). Thus, it includes the probability distributions included in the asymptotic extreme value theory, such as the Gumbel distribution Back and Cadorin (2020).…”

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confidence: 99%

Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

Moreira

Almeida

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Currently, humanity is unable to prevent extreme hydrological events from occurring. However, the use of appropriate tools to estimate the probability associated with different hydrological variables, such as heavy rainfall, can help mitigate social and environmental damage. The objective of this study was to verify the hypothesis that the maximum rainfall records (over different intervals of duration) from the three main rainfall stations in the state of Acre fit the Gumbel distribution. Additionally, the periods of intense rainfall were evaluated based on the association between rainfall duration and return period. Using the maximum likelihood method, and once the baseline stationarity assumption established by the Mann-Kendall test was met, the relevant equations were fitted to the classical Gumbel model. Adherence to the model was assessed using the Anderson‒Darling test. The fitted distributions allowed the estimation of rainfall intensity for different intervals of duration and return periods for the cities of Cruzeiro do Sul, Tarauacá and Rio Branco. These results are relevant for the implementation of plans aimed at strengthening the water security in the state of Acre.

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Assessment and characterization of the monthly probabilities of rainfall in Midwest Brazil using different goodness-of-fit tests as probability density functions selection criteria

Cited by 4 publications

References 56 publications

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Long‐term trend analysis in annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall in East Northeast of Brazil and the influence of modes of climate variability

Assessment of Parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution in Rainfall of the Peruvian North

Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

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