Assessing climate-induced agricultural vulnerable coastal communities of Bangladesh using machine learning techniques

Jakariya,; Alam, Md. Sajadul; Rahman, Abir; Ahmed, Silvia; Elahi, M. M. Lutfe; Khan, Abu Mohammad Shabbir; Saad, Saman; Tamim, HM; Ishtiak, Taoseef; Sayem, Sheikh Mohammad; Ali, Mirza Shawkat; Akter, Dilruba

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140255

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This leads to the extraction of water from deeper wells, which increases the electricity cost as well as the total cost of production. According to Mandal et al (2015) [15], the Sundarbans coastal region has been experiencing a delay in the onset of monsoon and late recession, while sometimes-heavy rainfall was observed during the harvest period of the monsoonal crop. The depletion of the groundwater level causes a higher rate of seawater intrusion, resulting in the qualitative deterioration and quantitative depletion of groundwater resources [26,50].…”

Section: Relationship Between Agricultural Activities and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sustainability of livelihood in Sundarbans and associated coastal zones is facing great insecurity due to over-dependence on the agricultural sector [14]. Additionally, increasing soil salinity due to proximity to the Bay of Bengal and frequent cyclonic storms (such as Aila and super cyclone Amphan in the recent past) along with the increasing prevalence of harmful pests and disease because of elevated temperature and humid conditions further deteriorates agricultural output [15]. Saline river water and brackish subsurface groundwater have led the residents of the Sundarbans region to depend on fresh groundwater abstracted from the confined aquifer at 160 to 300 m below ground level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Socio-Hydrological Approach to Explore Groundwater–Human Wellbeing Nexus: Case Study from Sundarbans, India

Halder

Kumar

Das

et al. 2021

Water

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Coastal regions are the residence of an enormously growing population. In spite of rich biodiversity, coastal ecosystems are extremely vulnerable due to hydroclimatic factors with probable impact on socio-economy. Since the last few decades, researchers and policymakers were attracted towards the existing water demand–resource relationship to predict its future trends and prioritize better water resource management options. Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) serves the wholesome purpose of modeling diverse aspects of decision analysis using water algorithm equations for proper planning of water resource management. In this study, future groundwater demand (domestic, agricultural, and livestock sector) in the fragile Sundarbans ecosystem was estimated considering different human population growth rates (high, low, and current) for 2011–2050. The results showed that the sustainability of coastal aquifer-dependent rural livelihood is expected to face great danger in the near future. The total groundwater demand is expected to rise by approximately 17% at the current growth rate in the study area to fulfill the domestic and agricultural requirement, while this value goes up to around 35% for a higher growth rate and around 4% for a lower growth rate. The impact of increasing groundwater demand was analyzed further to identify any socio-economic shifts in this region.

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Section: Relationship Between Agricultural Activities and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-Hydrological Approach to Explore Groundwater–Human Wellbeing Nexus: Case Study from Sundarbans, India

Halder

Kumar

Das

et al. 2021

Water

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“…A range of socioeconomic and biophysical constraints are present not only at the farm-level (e.g. soil fertility, farm location, and access to capital, labor, inputs, and markets), but also more broadly due to increasing threats from climate change and extreme weather events [4][5][6]. Previous research has often focused on individual dimensions of smallholder systems, such as investigating disciplinary socioeconomic challenges [7], biophysical constraints [8,9], or asset limitations such as land, water, and labor availability [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In southern Bangladesh, it has been estimated that 77% of farmers are unable to obtain a viable livelihood through farming alone [31]. Farm income, monthly savings, crop price, market conditions, and access to inputs and water all impact the vulnerability of smallholder livelihoods [6]. In addition, increasing soil salinity caused by oceanic water intrusion can decrease crop yields and revenue, leading farmers to pursue off-farm activities [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors contributing to farm-level productivity and household income generation in coastal Bangladesh’s rice-based farming systems

et al. 2021

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Large changes have taken place in smallholder farming systems in South Asia’s coastal areas in recent decades, particularly related to cropping intensity, input availability, climate risks, and off-farm activities. However, few studies have investigated the extent to which these changes have impacted farm-level crop productivity, which is a key driver of food security and poverty in rainfed, low-input, rice-based systems. The objective of this study was to conduct an integrated assessment of variables related to socioeconomic status, farm characteristics, and crop management practices to understand the major factors influencing crop productivity and identify promising leverage points for sustainable development in coastal Bangladesh. Using a panel survey dataset of 32 variables from 502 farm households located within polder (coastal embankment) and outside polder systems during 2005–2015, we employed statistical factor analysis to characterize five independent latent factors named here as Farming Challenges, Economic Status, Crop Management Practices, Asset Endowment, and Farm Characteristics. The factor Farming Challenges explained the most variation among households (31%), with decreases observed over time, specifically households located outside polders. Individual variables contributing to this factor included perceived cyclone severity, household distance to main roads and input-output markets, cropping intensity, and access to extension services. The most important factors for increasing crop productivity on a household and per unit area basis were Asset Endowment and Crop Management Practices, respectively. The former highlights the need for increasing gross cropped area, which can be achieved through greater cropping intensity, while the latter was associated with increased fertilizer, labor, and pesticide input use. Despite the importance of these factors, household poverty trajectory maps showed that changes in off-farm income had played the strongest role in improving livelihoods in this coastal area. This study can help inform development efforts and policies for boosting farm-level crop productivity, specifically through agricultural intensification (higher cropping intensity combined with appropriate and efficient use of inputs) and expanding opportunities for off-farm income as key pathways to bring smallholder households out of poverty.

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“…In addition, the existence of institution may alter the vulnerability (Rufat et al, 2015). Climate vulnerability factors are required to be anticipated by performing long-term actions (Jakariya et al, 2020) by formulating adaptation strategies to address vulnerabilities and developing technology-based solutions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determinant Factor of Food Farming Vulnerability in Banten Province To Support Climate Change Adaptation

2020

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Food crop is one of the most impacted agricultural sectors by climate related disaster. The negative impacts of climate related disaster could be assessed by its vulnerability level that depends on various indicators including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This paper aims to identify the determinant factors that influence the vulnerability of food farming based on the characteristics of land resources, climate and water, and socio-economic factors at the district level in Banten Province, and to develop recommendations on climate adaptation. Identification of the dominant factors, which most contribute to the level of vulnerability, is one of the main considerations to determine the strategy of adaptation. Our results showed that the main determinant factors varied among districts. The most important factors were Oldeman’s climate type (SEI12), the ratio of the number of extension agents to rice field area (ACI3), and the ratio of the number of farmer groups to rice field area (ACI4). SEI12 deals with the climate, whereas ACI3 and ACI4 are related human resources and institutions. Further, although urban area had high exposure and sensitivity as in rural area, but the adaptive capacity for the urban area was still high. Therefore, the level of vulnerability was reduced in urban, but still high in rural area. More efforts are expected to adapt climate related disaster in rural area.

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Assessing climate-induced agricultural vulnerable coastal communities of Bangladesh using machine learning techniques

Cited by 22 publications

References 17 publications

Socio-Hydrological Approach to Explore Groundwater–Human Wellbeing Nexus: Case Study from Sundarbans, India

Socio-Hydrological Approach to Explore Groundwater–Human Wellbeing Nexus: Case Study from Sundarbans, India

Factors contributing to farm-level productivity and household income generation in coastal Bangladesh’s rice-based farming systems

Determinant Factor of Food Farming Vulnerability in Banten Province To Support Climate Change Adaptation

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