Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies

Abstract

The paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies. Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment in new development and attainment of target production levels. However, it is very obvious that government's inability to overcome or reabsorb violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas installations.

Does natural gas fuel civil war? Rethinking energy security, international relations, and fossil-fuel conflict

“…Wilson asserts that a state is more likely to perceive "energy security as an existential threat to state interests insofar as energy resources critically impact its economic interests, regime survival and/or geopolitical security" [41: 114, 118]. From this perspective, intrastate conflicts influence a state's perception and anticipation about risks posed to its secure access to energy resources [24,27,28].…”

“…We argue that resource-rich interveners prioritize secure access to world markets since they need to export their products. Therefore, once an internal conflict breaks out in a state, especially if transit routes for natural gas pipelines are at stake, the instability caused by civil war might jeopardize this secure access, driving external states to intervene [24][25][26][27][28]. If the conflict-ridden state is also a resource-rich state, competition logic will further incentivize external states to intervene on the side of the rebel group.…”

Russian Intervention in Syria: Exploring the Nexus between Regime Consolidation and Energy Transnationalisation

“…As FitzGerald (2001: 209) notes, some transnational corporations (TNCs) are established investors in countries with conflicts and ‘operating in conflict situations could be said to be an integral part of corporate culture for natural resource firms’. Moreover, Luciani’s (2011) research suggests that oil and gas installations are more resilient to armed conflict than is commonly assumed, with major damage to infrastructure a rare occurrence.…”

Chemicals and Fuels from Biomass via Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis: A Route to Sustainability

“…5,6 The long-term security of petroleum supplies moving from producing countries to consuming countries could not be guaranteed, with periods of smooth relations interspersed with interludes of disruption of petroleum supply. 5,[7][8][9][10] Hence, competence in coal liquefaction technologies was generally considered of strategic importance by petroleum-consuming countries. Instances of disruption of petroleum supply reawakened interest in coal liquefaction technologies, but whenever supply was restored, commercial interest in coal liquefaction technologies waned.…”