Are psychotherapeutic changes predictable?

Abstract

An attempt to predict change in psychotherapy. Criteria included composite raw and residual gain scores based on factor analyses. Predictors included pretherapy scores on the criterion dimensions and on other variables. Intercorrelations within each set of criteria were generally low although some were significant. The few significant correlations between predictors and criteria did not reveal any systematic pattern except for pairs of variables derived from the same rater or shared sources of data. For clients at a university counseling center, raw or residual gains over relatively short psychotherapy are so specific to the given method that they are difficult or impossible to predict from measures based on independent methods.

The responsiveness of mentally retarded children to psychotherapy∗

“…Miles, et al (1951), Rosenberg (1954), Rioch andLuben (1959), andMcNair (1964) all report data congruent with a positive correlation between intelligence and outcome of psychotherapy. However, Harris and Christiansen (1946), Fiske, et al (1964), Harrower (1965, and Shore, et al (1965) all report independence between I.Q. and the results of psychotherapy.…”

Influence of client preparation and problem severity on attitudes and expectations in child psychotherapy.

“…Luborsky et al (1971) reviewed 28 studies that assessed the degree of initial client disturbance and found that 14 studies showed a significant positive relationship between the level of initial personality functioning and the outcome of treatment (e.g., Fiske, Cartwright, and Kirtner, 1964;Karush, Daniels, O'Conner, & Sterne, 1968;Strupp, Wallach, Jenkins, & Wogan, 1963). These studies indicated that the healthier the client was at the beginning of treatment, the better the outcome.…”

Characteristics and correlates of MMPI change within an adult psychiatric inpatient setting

“…Whether one views this as a promising or disappointing proportion may depend, to paraphrase an old metaphor, on the extent to which one views the glass as 27% "full" or 73% "empty." In point of fact, most prior researchers and theorists have taken a pessimistic outlook with regard to the predictability of psychotherapy outcome or progress based upon the use of demographic or psychological predictor variables (e.g., Endicott & Endicott, 1964;Fiske, Cartwright, & Kirtner, 1964;Watson, 1968). While the current findings attain statistical significance, the relatively low levels of predictability found serve as a caution to the clinician in attempting to predict therapy outcome on an individual case basis.…”

“…A second conclusion centers on the degree to which MMPI pretest measures served as more salient predictors of outcome than non-MMPI pretest measures. This observation leads directly to the limitations in interpreting simple change scores when outcome measures are not independent of predictor variables (Cronbach & Furby, 1970; Fiske et al, 1964). Gallagher (1954), for example, found that a peak elevation on MMPI scale D was the most significant predictor of therapy outcome across multiple criteria.…”