Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model

Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent; Chaiechi, Taha; Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.045

Cited by 57 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…LEAP sudah banyak digunakan untuk analisis kebutuhan dan penyediaan energi serta kaitannya dengan emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK). Model yang disusun berbasis skenario terintegrasi untuk membantu perencana energi dan pembuat keputusan dalam mengidentifikasi kebutuhan dan penyediaan energi di masa depan serta dampak yang mungkin timbul dari berbagai kebijakan yang diterapkan [4][5] [6]. Model energi yang dibuat merepresentasikan keseluruhan sistem energi, mulai dari sumber daya energi, proses dan konversi sampai dengan pemanfaatannya.…”

Section: Metodologiunclassified

Pemodelan Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Kebutuhan Energi di Indonesia

Sugiyono

Santosa

Adiarso

et al. 2020

JSC

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In order to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a large-scale social restriction policy (PSBB). The policy in the form of restrictions on social activities will limit economic activity which ultimately has an impact on decreasing energy demand. This PSBB policy is challenge in implementing a national energy management plan, and might causes some of the energy planning targets not to be achieved. To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on national energy demand, an energy model was created using LEAP software. LEAP is a model for comprehensive energy planning from energy resources to energy use based on an accounting system. For the purposes of analysis, LEAP requires quite detailed data, in the form of socioeconomic data, energy data, and community activity data due to social restrictions. In this paper, the results of energy modeling simulation are discussed in terms of energy demand based on the scenario of no pandemic or bussiness as usual (BAU) and three pandemic scenarios, namely: optimistic (OPT), moderate (MOD), and pessimistic (PES) scenarios. Energy demand in 2020 is predicted to decrease by 10.7% (OPT scenario), 15.3% (MOD scenario), and 20.0% (PES scenario) compared to the BAU scenario. The model can still be further developed to analyze the impact, both on the overall of demand side and energy supply side and also environmental aspects.

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Section: Metodologiunclassified

Pemodelan Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Kebutuhan Energi di Indonesia

Sugiyono

Santosa

Adiarso

et al. 2020

JSC

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“…The results of the leastcost scenario for Pakistan were also analyzed to depict falling investment and installation costs of renewable energy technologies, making them more profitable as a long run energy security option. Emodi et al 22 constructed six policy scenarios under two climate change conditions and compared their technical, economic, and environmental potential. LEAP and its integrated OSeMOSYS were used for optimization analysis.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal energy mix for greenhouse gas reduction with renewable energy – The case of the South Korean electricity sector

Cho

Kim

Lee³

et al. 2019

Energy & Environment

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The power generation sector is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in South Korea. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in this sector is therefore of crucial importance. The government has recently released its core energy policy objectives: elimination of coal-fired power generation, phase-out of nuclear plants, and promotion of renewable energy sources. This energy policy should be consistent with the national climate change response policy. This paper analyzed the optimum power generation structure based on the South Korean government’s energy policy and climate change policy and then analyzed the optimum power generation structure if the greenhouse gas reduction and renewable energy targets were different. Seven scenarios with different 2030 greenhouse gas reduction and renewable energy generation targets were investigated. The scenario analysis shows that it is difficult to reduce dependence on coal power generation if the South Korean government’s current energy and climate change policies are maintained. The current greenhouse gas reduction target level is insufficient to be a driving force for energy transition, but dependence on coal power generation can be reduced by applying a deeper level of greenhouse gas reduction (e.g. 50% reduction compared to BAU). To achieve the energy transition planned by the South Korean government, it would be necessary to set a target for greenhouse gas reduction that is deeper than the current plan. The results of this study analyzing the optimal power configuration for 2030 in light of South Korea’s energy and climate change policies are expected to contribute to the South Korean government’s establishment of policies in the future.

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“…LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) is a popular tool in energy modelling and has been used in many countries [14], [15], [16]. With accounting basis, LEAP framework is very flexible for many types of models, competencies, areas and methodologies [17], [18], [19], [20]. Many types of research had been carried out using this tool, such as energy demand analysis, greenhouse gas emission analysis, and sustainable energy transition analysis [21], [22].…”

Section: Modelling Toolmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Analysis for Sumatera Interconnection System using Integrated Resources Planning Approach

Suhono

Sarjiya²,

Hadi³

2019

Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro Komputer Dan Informatika

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The Sumatra interconnection system, which is the second-largest electricity system in Indonesia, is often experiencing rolling blackouts. That caused by a lack of supply from the power generating system of Sumatra. The Government has planned to develop new power plants through the fast track program (FTP). Until 2015, either power outages and supply shortages are still common. Therefore, an analysis of long-term electricity planning needed to support energy security in Sumatra. The Sumatra electricity system was modelled using integrated resource planning as a framework and the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) software as a tool to build and simulate the model. Three groups of scenarios will be compared are the fast track program (FTP) scenario, the biofuel mandatory (BM) scenario and optimization (OPT) scenario. The results show that the implementation of DSM programs through energy conservation scenario would be able to reduce the electricity demand in the future. On the other side, the alternative scenario shows that the electricity deficit could be resolved in 2022, while the optimization scenario shows that energy diversity would resolve the electricity crisis in the Sumatra interconnection system.

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Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model

Cited by 57 publications

References 90 publications

Pemodelan Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Kebutuhan Energi di Indonesia

Pemodelan Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Kebutuhan Energi di Indonesia

Optimal energy mix for greenhouse gas reduction with renewable energy – The case of the South Korean electricity sector

Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Analysis for Sumatera Interconnection System using Integrated Resources Planning Approach

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