Electricity Demand and Supply Planning Analysis for Sumatera Interconnection System using Integrated Resources Planning Approach

Abstract

The Sumatra interconnection system, which is the second-largest electricity system in Indonesia, is often experiencing rolling blackouts. That caused by a lack of supply from the power generating system of Sumatra. The Government has planned to develop new power plants through the fast track program (FTP). Until 2015, either power outages and supply shortages are still common. Therefore, an analysis of long-term electricity planning needed to support energy security in Sumatra. The Sumatra electricity system was modelled using integrated resource planning as a framework and the long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) software as a tool to build and simulate the model. Three groups of scenarios will be compared are the fast track program (FTP) scenario, the biofuel mandatory (BM) scenario and optimization (OPT) scenario. The results show that the implementation of DSM programs through energy conservation scenario would be able to reduce the electricity demand in the future. On the other side, the alternative scenario shows that the electricity deficit could be resolved in 2022, while the optimization scenario shows that energy diversity would resolve the electricity crisis in the Sumatra interconnection system.

Dekarbonisasi Sektor Ketenagalistrikan Sampai 2050 Dalam Kerangka Kebijakan Energi Nasional

“…Kapasitas pembangkit listrik dapat dihitung secara endogenous untuk mempertahankan nilai planning reserve margin (PRM) yang telah ditentukan. Perhitungan kapasitas pembangkit diawali dengan menghitung nilai kapasitas yang ada dengan persamaan 1 (Suhono, Sarjiya, and Hadi 2019). PRM sebelum ada penambahan kapasitas secara endogenous dihitung berdasarkan persamaan 3 (Suhono, Sarjiya, and Hadi 2019).…”

“…Perhitungan kapasitas pembangkit diawali dengan menghitung nilai kapasitas yang ada dengan persamaan 1 (Suhono, Sarjiya, and Hadi 2019). PRM sebelum ada penambahan kapasitas secara endogenous dihitung berdasarkan persamaan 3 (Suhono, Sarjiya, and Hadi 2019). (5)…”

“…endogenous yang telah ditambahkan sebelumnya (MW), Cvalue : persentase nilai kapasitas aktual (MW).Sedangkan kapasitas yang dibutuhkan untuk memenuhi beban puncak dihitung dengan menggunakan persamaan 2(Suhono, Sarjiya, and Hadi 2019).…”