Approach for simulating natural gas consumption factor based on grey prediction method

Abstract

The natural gas consumption has changed significantly in last ten years in China. This paper conducted a series of evaluations to analyze the China natural gas consumption. By analyzing the natural gas consumption sector, three important sectors, Industrial, Residential and Transport, are chosen as the study objectives. The main application of these three factors were discussed and different determinants for each sector were chosen. Correlation factor of each determinant was then calculated through grey coefficients analysis to investigate the relationship between determinants and natural gas consumption. We hope this evaluation can help to provide better policy plan of natural gas consumption in China.

Prediction and analysis of natural gas consumption in chongqing with a grey prediction model group in the context of COVID‐19

“…Theorem 2 (Zeng et al 22 ). Assume X (0) , X (1) , and Z (1) are stated as Definition 1, and in Definition 3 specifically, the least square estimation of the sequence parameters g a b c ˆ= ( , , ) T of TWGM(1,1) satisfy:…”

“…The detailed deduction process can be found in the study by Zeng et al 22 Definition 7. Assume the random oscillation sequence is X , and the smoothness sequence Y of X and the mean sequence generated of Z (1) are as stated in Definition 5 and Definition 1, respectively, where Y y y y n = ( (1), (2), …, ( )). Then, the following grey equation…”

“…A highly contagious novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) has swept the globe in early 2020 and caused tremendous changes in normal social life. Industry, transportation, commerce, and other industries closely related to natural gas consumption 1 have been greatly affected. As one of the largest natural gas consumption cities in China, Chongqing has abundant natural gas resources and numerous natural gas transportation networks.…”

“…Fine examples can be easily found in energy, [9][10][11][12][13] environment, 14,15 agriculture, 16,17 and other fields. [18][19][20] In the system of grey prediction theory, GM (1,1) is the most primitive and classical model. It is suitable for data sequences with approximately homogeneous exponential growth.…”