Prediction and analysis of natural gas consumption in chongqing with a grey prediction model group in the context of COVID‐19

Abstract

In this paper, a grey prediction model group is employed to quantitatively study the impact of COVID‐19 on natural gas consumption in Chongqing, China. First, a grey prediction model group suitable for the prediction of Chongqing's natural gas consumption is introduced, which consists of GM(1,1), TWGM(1,1), and the newly‐developed ODGM(1,1). Then, the model group is constructed to predict Chongqing's natural gas consumption in 2020. Finally, compare the predicted results of the model group with the actual consumption and quantitatively analyze the impact of the epidemic on natural gas in Chongqing. It is found that the impact of the epidemic on the consumption of natural gas in the first quarter of the year is very small, but relatively bigger in the second and third quarters. The study is of positive significance to maintain the supply and demand balance of natural gas consumption in Chongqing in the background of COVID‐19; and it enriches and develops the theoretical system of grey prediction models.

Forecasting China's natural gas external dependence under the “Dual Carbon” goals by a new grey model

“…Considering the seasonal and periodic oscillation of natural gas demand and consumption, scholars discussed and established multiple models for prediction. [24][25][26][27][28][29] The aboverelated documents are listed in Table 1. The above grey prediction models mostly consider the prediction of China's natural gas production and consumption from the perspective of positive real number fractional order and time cycle.…”