“…Another study used the trend analysis model based on expert knowledge and historical data on fruit consumption; the researchers applied TIA for four European countries and identified ‘achieving the desired level of health’, ‘achieving the desired comfort and facilities’, and ‘using initiative and diversity in production’ as three drivers with positive effect on fruit consumption. They also expected that fruit consumption would increase by 2.12 kg per year from 2007 to 2025 due to the influence of the mentioned drivers [ 24 ].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is followed by applying Monte Carlo simulation in the TIA algorithm, which combines the impact and event probability judgments with the outcomes of the baseline scenario to generate a possible future scenario. TIA approach has previously been applied in the field of health for predicting future fruit consumption in the Netherlands [ 24 ]. Fig.…”
Background
Childhood obesity has been regarded as one of the main healthcare challenges in the last century, leading to critical health problems and reduced life expectancy. Many factors can play a role in its development or prevention. Using the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA), this study aimed to conduct a community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran.
Methods
We obtained the prevalence of overweight and obesity from the database of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Moreover, we reviewed 21 documents, texts, and comments from three key stakeholders in Iran and prepared a list of key experts, who were stakeholders in the field of obesity prevention of childhood in different organizations. Then, we collected the expert opinions by Delphi method. Data analysis was performed using the Excel and R software.
Results
Fourteen experts participated in the first stage and nine experts in the second stage. We identified two positive drivers, including the prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the widespread expansion of online educational programs. Meanwhile, we identified five negative drivers as follows: (1) controlling and limiting obesogenic environments in the community, school, and family; (2) running annual compulsory anthropometry programs for students of all educational levels in health centers; (3) integrating nutrition education interventions in the curricula of all educational levels; (4) taxation of unhealthy and fast foods; and (5) preparing safe and appropriate sports environments for children and adolescents (on the streets, schools, parks, and sports clubs). Without considering the drivers, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is predicted to reach 29.10% in 2031. However, it is expected that the negative drivers can increase the prevalence trend from 23.40% in 2018 to 19.57% in 2031, the positive drivers to 32.61%, and the combination of all drivers to 23.07%.
Conclusion
It seems that measures such as the effective communication of policy makers, basic evaluation of the programs and policies related to the prevention of childhood obesity, and localization of the programs of international organizations for the prevention of obesity can greatly control the prevalence of childhood obesity.
“…Another study used the trend analysis model based on expert knowledge and historical data on fruit consumption; the researchers applied TIA for four European countries and identified ‘achieving the desired level of health’, ‘achieving the desired comfort and facilities’, and ‘using initiative and diversity in production’ as three drivers with positive effect on fruit consumption. They also expected that fruit consumption would increase by 2.12 kg per year from 2007 to 2025 due to the influence of the mentioned drivers [ 24 ].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is followed by applying Monte Carlo simulation in the TIA algorithm, which combines the impact and event probability judgments with the outcomes of the baseline scenario to generate a possible future scenario. TIA approach has previously been applied in the field of health for predicting future fruit consumption in the Netherlands [ 24 ]. Fig.…”
Background
Childhood obesity has been regarded as one of the main healthcare challenges in the last century, leading to critical health problems and reduced life expectancy. Many factors can play a role in its development or prevention. Using the Trend Impact Analysis (TIA), this study aimed to conduct a community-based futures study for pediatric obesity in Iran.
Methods
We obtained the prevalence of overweight and obesity from the database of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Moreover, we reviewed 21 documents, texts, and comments from three key stakeholders in Iran and prepared a list of key experts, who were stakeholders in the field of obesity prevention of childhood in different organizations. Then, we collected the expert opinions by Delphi method. Data analysis was performed using the Excel and R software.
Results
Fourteen experts participated in the first stage and nine experts in the second stage. We identified two positive drivers, including the prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the widespread expansion of online educational programs. Meanwhile, we identified five negative drivers as follows: (1) controlling and limiting obesogenic environments in the community, school, and family; (2) running annual compulsory anthropometry programs for students of all educational levels in health centers; (3) integrating nutrition education interventions in the curricula of all educational levels; (4) taxation of unhealthy and fast foods; and (5) preparing safe and appropriate sports environments for children and adolescents (on the streets, schools, parks, and sports clubs). Without considering the drivers, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is predicted to reach 29.10% in 2031. However, it is expected that the negative drivers can increase the prevalence trend from 23.40% in 2018 to 19.57% in 2031, the positive drivers to 32.61%, and the combination of all drivers to 23.07%.
Conclusion
It seems that measures such as the effective communication of policy makers, basic evaluation of the programs and policies related to the prevention of childhood obesity, and localization of the programs of international organizations for the prevention of obesity can greatly control the prevalence of childhood obesity.
“…Due to their unique red colored fruit pulp, RFA have a high degree of novelty and bring innovation to the industry [41]. Introducing highly rewarding apple varieties appreciated by consumers can increase the sustainability of the industry's supply chain, and positively impact consumers' food choices [6,44].…”
Section: Trends In the Apple Industrymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With high product standards, consumers are becoming increasingly selective and can choose among various product attributes [2,46]. In today's dynamic horticultural market, the understanding of consumer behavior and values is crucial to increase the profitability of the sector, drive innovation, and guide consumers towards sustainable food choices [6]. Rapid changes in lifestyle, globalization and the availability of information make the modern consumers aware of their purchasing capabilities, and increase product expectation [47].…”
Section: Consumer Trends and Fruit Perceptionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The perishability of fresh fruit, new production technologies, an increase in product availability, facilitated entrance of low cost and high quality suppliers, the globalization in trade, the increasing power of retail chains, and changes in consumer behavior enhance the competitiveness on the fruit market [1,6]. The fruit industry is therefore facing multiple challenges which call for a consumer-oriented approach to increase the sustainability of the whole chain [2,7].…”
The fresh fruit industry is a highly dynamic sector in the food market. Fresh fruit chain actors have to adapt to the changing market environment in order to face upcoming challenges. The objective of this study is to analyze the market sustainability of red-fleshed apples (RFA) by exploring consumers’ and fresh fruit industry experts’ and stakeholders’ opinions in Italy and New Zealand. The study was carried out in Italy and New Zealand from December 2018 to June 2019 including 778 consumers and 29 expert and stakeholder interviews. Results show a promising market potential of RFA. Innovative attributes and nutritional value of RFA are the most important factors that push consumers’ interest and willingness to buy RFA. New Zealand consumers and women show a higher appreciation of RFA. The nutritional value of the fruit can be a strategic marketing management attribute especially for health-conscious consumers. However, experts think the market for RFA will develop slowly, and will remain a niche product. Some stakeholders are skeptical about consumer RFA appreciation, and fear that RFA are too radical a novelty on the market. The RFA may be perceived as not natural. There is the need to coordinate food chain stakeholders’ management practices on RFA. This allows to mitigate risks, set food standards acceptable for all chain stakeholders, and make sustainable economic investment on innovation.
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