Aplikasi Peramalan Jumlah Pemohon Paspor Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Kantor Imigrasi Kelas Ii Kota Lhokseumawe

Abstract

Setiap tahunnya jumlah pemohon paspor dikantor imigrasi selalu meningkat (kantor imigrasi kelas II Kota Lhokseumawe). peningkatan jumlah pemohon paspor ini akan berdampak pada kesediaan sarana, prasarana, maupun pelayanan pengurusan paspor yang sering mencapai 500 – 600 buah paspor setiap bulannya ditahun 2016. Penelitian peramalan ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode double exponential smoothing. Perhitungan akurasi dilakukan dengan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Data yang digunakan sebanyak 72 data permohonan paspor baru mulai dari bulan januari 2016 sampai desember 2018 perjenis laki – laki dan perempuan didapatkan dari kantor imigrasi kelas II kota Lhokseumawe. Dari penelitian ini pengujian pada tahun 2018 didapatkan nilai parameter untuk double exponential smoothing adalah ɑ = 0.2. Dari nilai parameter tersebut didapatkan nilai SSE sebesar = 2356.833705, nilai MSE sebesar = 1178.416852 dan MAPE sebesar = 5,585627855.

Prediction of Raw Material Purchases using The Weight Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods at CV. Sukses Jaya Putra

“…Based on the results of a study entitled prediction of the number of new student candidates using the double exponential smoothing method from Brown, after analyzing the data with the results of One Parameter from Brown with a value of a = 0.2 to predict the number of new students in the following year, namely at AL-Musyarrofah Islamic Elementary School Jakarta in the 2020/2021 school year (F7 + 1) as many as 63.9928065 rounded up to 64 Students have increased (Darnila, Asrianda, and Jannah 2019).…”

“…Research related to prediction or forecasting has been carried out using the Double Exponential Smoothing method which has been proven by Darnila et.al argue that it can predict passport applicants for the Immigration Service category II Lhokseumawe city with an accurate value by obtaining the smallest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) with a parameter value of 0.2 and an SSE value of 2356.83370, as well as an MSE value of 1178.416852 and a MAPE value of 5.585627855 (Darnila, Asrianda, and Jannah 2019). Another study based on the results of research using Brown's double exponential smoothing method that predicts the number of new students in the future, after analyzing the data, use the results of Brown's One Parameter with a value of a = 0.2 to predict the number of new students in the following year, namely (F7 + 1) to 63.9928065 rounded up to 64(Supriyanti 2020).…”