Prediction of Raw Material Purchases using The Weight Moving Average and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods at CV. Sukses Jaya Putra

Abstract

Technology plays an important role in helping problems that exist in a company. One of them is at CV. Sukses Jaya Putra which often has difficulty knowing how much raw material to buy for the next period. so that there are often errors in purchasing estimates. This study aims to predict the purchase of raw materials in CV.Sukses Jaya Putra by using data records from the previous 14 months as much as 2,181 data to calculate predictions for the next period by comparing two methods, namely weight moving average and double exponential smooth. Researchers compared these two methods in order to find out which method has a smaller error value which means it is better at predicting. The results showed that the weight moving average was more accurate than the double exponential smoothing method with an average result of MAPE of 28.74% and for double exponential smoothing as much as 33.07%. While the results of the next period prediction with the results of 2,251,440.33 for the weight moving average method and 1,672,246.18 for the double exponential smoothing method. For further research, we suggest more variations of weights to be included in calculations using the double exponential smooth or weight moving average approach .