Antinormative Messaging, Group Cues, and the Nuclear Ban Treaty

Herzog, Stephen; Baron, Jonathon; Gibbons, Rebecca Davis

doi:10.1086/714924

Cited by 21 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…A North Korean crisis under the nuclear umbrella would look different than scenarios simulated by many recent studies. Some of these studies showed high US public willingness to use nuclear weapons, contrasting with scholarship about the prevalence of a nuclear taboo and pervasive pro-disarmament sentiment in the United States (Tannenwald 2007;Rosendorf, Smetana, and Vranka 2021;Herzog, Baron, and Gibbons 2022). 1 Press, Sagan, and Valentino (2013, 199) found the majority of Americans assented to nuclear weapon use to strike suspected al-Qaeda nuclear facilities.…”

Section: Extended Deterrence and Nuclear Crisesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

Allison

Herzog

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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How robust is public support for extended nuclear deterrence in patron and client states? Recent studies have improved scholarly understanding of US public opinion about nuclear weapon use against non-nuclear adversaries. Yet, there is limited knowledge of public attitudes regarding retaliation for nuclear strikes against US allies. We develop a theoretical typology of nuclear crises and investigate this phenomenon with a novel survey experiment ( n = 6,623). Americans, Japanese, and South Koreans viewed realistic emergency alert messages about a most-likely case for nuclear retaliation: a North Korean missile attack on a US ally protected by the nuclear umbrella. Support for nuclear retaliation is low in all three countries, with important cross-national differences. Favorability increases with North Korean nuclear first-use, but it remains limited nonetheless. Surprisingly, US “tripwire” troop casualties do not increase Americans’ demands for nuclear retaliation. These findings have important implications for the study of nuclear crises and practice of extended deterrence.

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Section: Extended Deterrence and Nuclear Crisesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

Allison

Herzog

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…To measure the attack source, we included six countries. Following previous work about the effects of rivalry on cyber incidents (Valeriano and Maness, 2015; Valeriano et al, 2018), we included four rivals of the USA that are powerful in cyberspace: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. We also included a country that is both enormously powerful in cyberspace and not a US adversary: Israel.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Replication materials, including datasets and code, and materials related to IRB exemption are available online at the Harvard Dataverse: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/ DVN/6HOEVE 2. Researchers investigating public opinion regarding nuclear weapons (both the use thereof and measures to reduce or eliminate nuclear arsenals) have long dealt with similar problems (Press et al, 2013;Sagan and Valentino, 2017;Herzog et al, 2021;Koch and Wells, 2021). 3.…”

Section: Declaration Of Conflicting Interestsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hitting back or holding back in cyberspace: Experimental evidence regarding Americans’ responses to cyberattacks

Leal

Musgrave

2022

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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Theorists offer many predictions about how Americans will respond to significant cyberattacks but systematic evaluations of American public opinion regarding these issues remain rare. We present results from a conjoint experiment and find that the public supports retaliation-in-kind against cyberattacks but is willing to escalate as the economic damage and human casualties of a hypothetical attack mount. Respondents support harsher retaliation after attacks carried out by terrorist groups or state agencies rather than those conducted by individuals or civilian hackers. Finally, the dynamics of the public's judgment regarding responses to a domestic or an international cyber attack are broadly similar.

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“…Other authors speak of powerful myths surrounding public views on nuclear weapons (Wilson, 2014) and cultural inertia that makes deep changes to the general perceptions of the value of nuclear weapons difficult (Harrington de Santana, 2009; Ritchie, 2010, 2013). On the other hand, scholars have demonstrated that the global nuclear order and the relevant norms, rules, beliefs, and attitudes are in a permanent state of flux, being contested by discourses, practices, and behaviours of states, NGOs and international institutions (Herzog et al, 2021; Lantis, 2018; Müller & Wunderlich, 2013, 2018; Rublee & Cohen, 2018; Smetana & O'Mahoney, 2022). Even Tannenwald herself recently proposed that the ‘nuclear taboo’ has been gradually losing its normative grip (Tannenwald, 2018b)—particularly with respect to public attitudes (Tannenwald, 2018a).…”

Section: Major Events Wars and Attitude Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post‐Ukraine

2023

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In the past, the European public has not been enthusiastic about nuclear deterrence and the stationing of US American nuclear weapons in Europe. Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed that aversion? We conducted a unique study, surveying the same population of respondents at two points in time-in September 2020 and in June 2022. We find that European respondents became much more hawkish after the invasion: nuclear deterrence was viewed more favourably, the willingness to use nuclear weapons increased, and support for the withdrawal of nuclear weapons dropped significantly. The paper draws a number of policy implications from these results.

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Antinormative Messaging, Group Cues, and the Nuclear Ban Treaty

Cited by 21 publications

References 8 publications

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

Under the Umbrella: Nuclear Crises, Extended Deterrence, and Public Opinion

Hitting back or holding back in cyberspace: Experimental evidence regarding Americans’ responses to cyberattacks

Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post‐Ukraine

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