Hawks in the making? European public views on nuclear weapons post‐Ukraine

Abstract

In the past, the European public has not been enthusiastic about nuclear deterrence and the stationing of US American nuclear weapons in Europe. Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed that aversion? We conducted a unique study, surveying the same population of respondents at two points in time-in September 2020 and in June 2022. We find that European respondents became much more hawkish after the invasion: nuclear deterrence was viewed more favourably, the willingness to use nuclear weapons increased, and support for the withdrawal of nuclear weapons dropped significantly. The paper draws a number of policy implications from these results.

Reducing nuclear weapons risk: behavioural insights and the human factor in nuclear decision-making

“…80 While public engagement is a cornerstone of democratic decision-making processes, it is important to recognize that public sentiment can be influenced by various factors including media coverage, external global affairs, as well as political narratives. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine shows, a heightened public salience can sometimes lead to a more favourable view of nuclear weapons capability, 81 whereas at other times, it has led to greater demand for arms control and non-proliferation.…”