Anticipating trade-offs between urban patterns and ecosystem service production: Scenario analyses of sprawl alternatives for a rapidly urbanizing region

Shoemaker, Douglas A.; BenDor, Todd K.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.10.003

Cited by 46 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Carbon storages in Bishkek and Dushanbe are predicted to decrease by 0.65 Tg and 0.52 Tg under the BDS, 0.16 Tg, and 0.16 Tg under the CPS, 0.5 Tg, and 0.17 Tg under the EPS, respectively. These results are in agreement with previously reported findings that future carbon storage is prone to decline [18][19][20][21]. On the contrary, Carbon storage in Nur Sultan manifests a growing tendency under all scenarios, with a growth of 0.01 Tg, 0.11 Tg, and 0.14 Tg under the BDS, CPS, and EPS, respectively.…”

Section: Carbon Storage Changes Under Three Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The results showed that Britain and China would experience different degrees of decline in carbon storage, while the United States would experience an increase. At the regional scale, case studies were focused on Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration [18], Hubei province [19], Beijing [20], and Charlotte [21], which came to the same conclusion of carbon storage loss with future urban expansion. However, there are still two challenges to be addressed in the existing literature.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Chen

Yue

Xue

et al. 2021

Land

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There is growing concern about the consequences of future urban expansion on carbon storage as our planet experiences rapid urbanization. While an increasing body of literature was focused on quantifying the carbon storage impact of future urban expansion across the globe, rare attempts were made from the comparative perspective on the same scale, particularly in Central Asia. In this study, Central Asian capitals, namely Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Nur Sultan, and Tashkent, were used as cases. According to the potential impacts of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) on urban expansion, baseline development scenario (BDS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS) were defined. We then simulated the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion from 2019 to 2029 by using Google Earth Engine, the Future Land Use Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs model. We further explored the drivers for carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion in five capitals. The results reveal that Nur Sultan will experience carbon storage growth from 2019 to 2029 under all scenarios, while Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent will show a decreasing tendency. EPS and CPS will preserve the most carbon storage for Nur Sultan and the other four cities, respectively. The negative impact of future urban expansion on carbon storage will be evident in Ashkhabad, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, which will be relatively inapparent in Nur Sultan. The potential drivers for carbon storage consequences of future urban expansion include agricultural development in Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent, desert city development in Ashkhabad, and prioritized development of the central city and green development in Nur Sultan. We suggest that future urban development strategies for five capitals should be on the basis of differentiated characteristics and drivers for the carbon storage impacts of future urban expansion.

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Section: Carbon Storage Changes Under Three Scenariossupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Chen

Yue

Xue

et al. 2021

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Recent studies have shown that the diversified social demands and the environmental complexity have led to more complex interactions among multiple ES [ 11 , 12 ]. For example, an increase of ES provisions (such as food and fiber) can lead to reductions of regulating services (such as water regulation and carbon sequestration), resulting in a trade-off of one ES for another [ 13 , 14 ]. Yet, in another example, the improvement of human living environments that synergistically includes other ES (e.g., urbanization plans, including afforestation, trash separation, and increasing water area) can improve multiple regulating ES (e.g., air filtration, urban heat sinks, and surface water balance for flood regulation), and positively influence regional climates [ 15 , 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

Cheng

Han

2020

IJERPH

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It is generally believed that land-use changes can affect a variety of ecosystem services (ES), but the relationships involved remain unclear due to a lack of systematic knowledge and gaps in data. In order to make rational decisions for land-use planning that is grounded in a systematic understanding of trade-offs between different land-use strategies, it is very important to understand the response mechanisms of various ecosystem services to changes in land-use. Therefore, the objective of our study is to assess the effects of land-use change on six ecosystem services and their trade-offs among the ecosystem services in the ecological conservation area (ECA) in Beijing, China. To do this, we projected future land-use in 2030 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Ecological Protection (ELP), and Rapid Urban Development (RUD), using GeoSOS-FLUS model. Then, we quantified six ecosystem services (carbon storage, soil conservation, water purification, habitat quality, flood regulation, and food production) in response to land-use changes from 2015 to 2030, using a spatially explicit InVEST model. Finally, we illustrated the trade-offs and/or synergistic relationships between each ecosystem service quantified under each of the different scenarios in 2030. Results showed that built-up land is projected to increase by 281.18 km2 at the cost of water bodies and cultivated land from 2015 to 2030 under the RUD scenario, while forest land is projected to increase by 152.38 km2 under the ELP scenario. The carbon storage, soil conservation, habitat quality, and the sum of ecosystem services (SES) would enrich the highest level under the ELP scenario. Land-use strategies that follow the ELP scenario can better maintain the ecosystem services and sustainable development of natural and social economic systems.

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“…Finally, a large number of studies included in this review explored methodological frameworks or tools to foster dense and green cities, namely by facilitating the management of trade-offs between urban densification and the provision of green space, such as urban development models and scenarios [124][125][126][127][128][129][130][131][132][133], frameworks for multiscale or multicriteria assessment of green spaces in the context of urban densification [134][135][136][137][138][139][140], frameworks to optimize vertical gardening, green roofs or sky gardens [141][142][143][144][145][146], or new tools for understanding and measuring how urban design affects green space accessibility [147].…”

Section: Tools and Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Going Green and Going Dense: A Systematic Review of Compatibilities and Conflicts in Urban Research

Madureira

Monteiro

2021

Sustainability

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The dilemma of simultaneously promoting the advantages of urban densification and urban liveability, namely the environmental and social benefits of urban green spaces, has been widely acknowledged in the research literature. This paper aims to provide an overview of the current state of evidence on benefits, conflicts and challenges emerging from fostering both urban densification and urban greening aims. A systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines was conducted. Searches for peer-reviewed papers were conducted in Scopus and Web of Science. Our search yielded an initial 357 papers, which were then further sorted and screened to the 117 manuscripts retained and included in this review. The authors systematized the multiple perspectives in which the interactions between urban densification and urban greening have been explored. Moreover, the results revealed a lack of clear agreement about the existence or not of conflicts emerging from fostering both urban densification and urban greening aims, suggesting that the positive or negative interactions are not absolute but depend on the scale or the context on which the studies are conducted. Further research should explore multiple potential mediating variables (e.g., the mediator effect of scale and context) to deepen our understanding of interactions between density and greening.

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Anticipating trade-offs between urban patterns and ecosystem service production: Scenario analyses of sprawl alternatives for a rapidly urbanizing region

Cited by 46 publications

References 57 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Multi-Scenario Simulation for the Consequence of Urban Expansion on Carbon Storage: A Comparative Study in Central Asian Republics

Analyzing Land-Use Change Scenarios for Ecosystem Services and their Trade-Offs in the Ecological Conservation Area in Beijing, China

Going Green and Going Dense: A Systematic Review of Compatibilities and Conflicts in Urban Research

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