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The Big Sur ecoregion in coastal California is a botanically and ecologically diverse area that has recently experienced substantial mortality of oak (Quercus spp.) and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) trees due to the emerging forest disease sudden oak death, caused by the invasive pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. In response to the urgent need to examine environmental impacts and create management response strategies, we quantified the impact of P. ramorum invasion on tree mortality across the Big Sur ecoregion using high-resolution aircraft imagery and field data. Using the imagery, we mapped all detectable oak and tanoak trees possibly killed by P. ramorum infection within redwoodtanoak forests and mixed oak woodlands. To validate and improve our remote assessment, we quantified the number, size, and infection status of host trees in 77 field plots (0.25 ha). The field data showed that our remote assessment underestimated mortality due to the occurrence of dead trees in the forest understory. For each forest type, we developed regression models that adjusted our remote assessments of tree mortality in relation to field observations of mortality and local habitat variables. The models significantly improved remote assessment of oak mortality, but relationships were stronger for mixed oak woodlands (r 2 = 0.77) than redwoodtanoak forests (r 2 = 0.66). Using the field data, we also modeled the amount of dead tree basal area (m 2 ) in relation to the density of mapped dead trees in mixed oak woodlands (r 2 = 0.73) and redwoodtanoak forests (r 2 = 0.54). Application of the regression models in a GIS estimated 235,678 standing dead trees in 2005 and 12,650 m 2 of tree basal area removed from the ecoregion, with 63% of mortality occurring in redwood-tanoak forests and 37% in mixed oak woodlands. Integration of the remote assessment with population estimates of host abundance, obtained from an independent network of 175 field plots (0.05 ha each), indicated similar prevalence of mortality in redwood-tanoak forests (20.0%) and mixed oak woodlands (20.5%) at this time. This is the first study to quantify a realistic number of dead trees impacted by P. ramorum over a defined ecological region. Ecosystem impacts of such widespread mortality will likely be significant.

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h i g h l i g h t s• We explored urbanization scenarios based on hypothetical land use policies.• We used a unique modeling method to represent conservation planning strategies.• No single strategy was best for achieving all conservation goals.• Effective planning requires assessment of tradeoffs between differing priorities. a b s t r a c tLand that is of great value for conservation can also be highly suitable for human use, resulting in competition between urban development and the protection of natural resources. To assess the effectiveness of proposed regional land conservation strategies in the context of rapid urbanization, we measured the impacts of simulated development patterns on two distinct conservation goals: protecting priority natural resources and limiting landscape fragmentation. Using a stochastic, patch-based land change model (FUTURES) we projected urbanization in the North Carolina Piedmont according to status quo trends and several conservation-planning strategies, including constraints on the spatial distribution of development, encouraging infill, and increasing development density. This approach allows simulation of population-driven land consumption without excluding the possibility of development, even in areas of high conservation value. We found that if current trends continue, new development will consume 11% of priority resource lands, 21% of forested land, and 14% of farmlands regionally by 2032. We also found that no single conservation strategy was optimal for achieving both conservation goals. For example, strategies that excluded development from priority areas caused increased fragmentation of forests and farmlands, while infill strategies increased loss of priority resources proximal to urban areas. Exploration of these land change scenarios not only confirmed that a failure to act is likely to result in irreconcilable losses to a conservation network, but that all conservation plans are not equivalent in effect, highlighting the importance of analyzing tradeoffs between alternative conservation planning approaches.

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. 2014. A mixed-methods analysis of socialecological feedbacks between urbanization and forest persistence. Ecology and Society 19(3): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ ES- Insight, part of a Special Feature on Exploring Feedbacks in Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS)A mixed-methods analysis of social-ecological feedbacks between urbanization and forest persistence ABSTRACT. We examined how social-ecological factors in the land-change decision-making process influenced neighboring decisions and trajectories of alternative landscape ecologies. We decomposed individual landowner decisions to conserve or develop forests in the rapidly growing Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S. region, exposing and quantifying the effects of forest quality, and social and cultural dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that the intrinsic value of forest resources, e.g., cultural attachment to land, influence woodland owners' propensity to sell. Data were collected from a sample of urban, nonindustrial private forest (U-NIPF) owners using an individualized survey design that spatially matched land-owner responses to the ecological and timber values of their forest stands. Cluster analysis (n = 126) revealed four woodland owner typologies with widely ranging views on the ecosystem, cultural, and historical values of their forests. Classification tree analysis revealed woodland owners' willingness to sell was characterized by nonlinear, interactive factors, including sense of place values regarding the retention of native vegetation, the size of forest holdings, their connectedness to nature, 'pressure' from surrounding development, and behavioral patterns, such as how often landowners visit their land. Several ecological values and economic factors were not found to figure in the decision to retain forests. Our study design is unique in that we address metropolitan forest persistence across urban-rural and population gradients using a unique individualized survey design that richly contextualizes survey responses. Understanding the interplay between policies and landowner behavior can also help resource managers to better manage and promote forest persistence. Given the region's paucity of policy tools to manage the type and amount of development, the mosaic of land cover the region currently enjoys is far from stable.

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a b s t r a c tThe global bioenergy market has considerable impacts on local land use patterns, including landscapes in the Southeastern United States where increased demand for bioenergy feedstocks in the form of woody biomass is likely to affect the management and availability of forest resources. Despite extensive research investigating the productivity and impacts of different bioenergy feedstocks, relatively few studies have assessed the preferences of private landowners, who control the majority of forests in the eastern U.S., to harvest biomass for the bioenergy market. To better understand contingent behaviors given emerging biomass markets, we administered a stated preference experiment to private forest owners in the rapidly urbanizing Charlotte Metropolitan region. Respondents indicated their preferences for harvesting woody biomass under a set of hypothetical market-based scenarios with varying forest management plans and levels of economic return. Our analytical framework also incorporated data from a previously-administered revealed preference survey and spatially-explicit remote sensing data, enabling us to analyze how individuals' ownership characteristics, their emotional connection the forests they manage, and the spatial patterns of nearby land uses, influence willingness to grow bioenergy feedstocks. We found conditional support for feedstock production, even among woodland owners with no history of active management. Landowners preferred higher economic returns for each management plan. However low-intensity harvest options were always preferred to more intensive management alternatives regardless of economic return, suggesting that these landowners may be more strongly motivated by aesthetic or quality-of-life concerns than feedstock revenues. Our analysis indicated preferences were dependent upon individual and environmental characteristics, with younger, more rural landowners significantly more interested in growing feedstocks relative to their older and more urban counterparts. While this study focuses on one small sample of urban forest owners, our results do suggest that policy makers and resource managers can better inform stand-level decision-making by understanding how feedstock production preferences vary across populations.Published by Elsevier Ltd.