“…4 On the other hand, subsequent works as Hamilton and Kim (2002) and Ang et al (2006), among others, focus on analyzing the predictive power of the two components of the yield spread, that is, the expectations of short-term interest rates in the future and the term premium. In general, both components are found to have predictive power, although in some cases the component of interest rate 4 Some of the early empirical studies include Harvey (1988Harvey ( , 1989, Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991), Estrella and Mishkin (1997) and Estrella et al (2003), among others. Harvey (1988Harvey ( , 1989, for instance, shows that there is information about future consumption and output growth in the real term structure.…”