Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland

Abstract

The Paris Climate Accord calls for urgent CO2 reductions. Here we investigate low and zero carbon pathways based on clean electricity and sector coupling. Effects from different spatialities are considered through city and national cases (Helsinki and Finland). The methodology employs techno-economic energy system optimization, including resilience aspects. In the Finnish case, wind, nuclear, and biomass coupled to power-to-heat and other flexibility measures could provide a cost-effective carbon-neutral pathway (annual costs −18%), but nuclear and wind are, to some extent, exclusionary. A (near) carbon-neutral energy system seems possible even without nuclear (−94% CO2). Zero-carbon energy production benefits from a stronger link to the broader electricity market albeit flexibility measures. On the city level, wind would not easily replace local combined heat and power (CHP), but may increase electricity export. In the Helsinki case, a business-as-usual approach could halve emissions and annual costs, while in a comprehensive zero-emission approach, the operating costs (OPEX) could decrease by 87%. Generally, electrification of heat production could be effective to reduce CO2. Low or zero carbon solutions have a positive impact on resilience, but in the heating sector this is more problematic, e.g., power outage and adequacy of supply during peak demand will require more attention when planning future carbon-free energy systems.

Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways

“…An earlier version of the energy system simulation model is presented in [29] (utilized e.g. in [51]), though the model is slightly updated for the purposes of this paper. The energy system is simulated on hourly basis over a year to consider the dynamics and interactions of its different segments.…”

“…[23,29,[43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50]. This study is a continuation of our previous work on Finnish low-carbon energy system pathways [51]. Even though many of these studies address some aspect of future uncertainty, such as lower biomass availability [29,45], demand uncertainty [29,46], and weather conditions [47], these analyses are mainly done with separate scenarios addressing a single uncertain parameter.…”

Pathway Analysis of a Zero-Emission Transition in the Nordic-Baltic Region

“…The consequent distributional effects will need consideration in the policies. The strong electrification of the energy sector through sector coupling may also raise new challenges on its resilience against different wicked problems such as cyber-security [12].…”

“…Many cities aim at carbon neutrality before 2050 [11]. Country analyses on carbon neutrality are numerous [12]. Eighteen countries in the European Union have announced plans for carbon neutrality by 2050 [13], including large countries such as Germany and France, and there is growing momentum to decide on this goal at the EU level as previously skeptical countries like Hungary and Bulgaria are turning around [14].…”

Achieving Carbon Neutrality for A Future Large Greenhouse Gas Emitter in Quebec, Canada: A Case Study

“…To achieve a global net-zero carbon footprint by 2050, any new GHG producing activity or industry should be carbon neutral from the beginning, reducing the pressure on an already challenged system [17,[19][20][21][22][23][24]. New industrials wishing to abide by this rule often lack the understanding and knowledge of the scientific principles, rules and various regulations in effect, necessary to establish their potential carbon footprint and the means to erase it.…”