Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania

García, Alexander; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Palazzi, Elisa; D’Onofrio, Donatella; Gasparini, Paolo; Marzocchi, Warner

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1324-z

Cited by 27 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 56 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…From the 1960s, accounts of natural risks have tripled. During 2007, fifteen (14) out of fourteen (15), "emergency appeals" for emergency public-spirited assistance were in the areas of storms, droughts and floods, five times more than in the prior year [53]. Ghana's, climate variation is experiencing increasing unpredictable rainfall and temperatures in all regions [54].…”

Section: Climate Change and Variability In Ghanamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As seen below, Equations (11)- (15) are the path equations for prediction of the agriculture production indexes and weather extremes.…”

Section: Paths Equationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Effect of exceptionally high rainfall on agriculture production indexes • Effect of extremely high temperature on agriculture production indexes • Impact of low temperature on agriculture production indexes Rare weather conditions like severe rainfall, extreme temperature (and heat waves), or strong winds, may have significant effects on sectors such as agriculture and health, which may result in severe risk to human life [15]. Further, risks of extreme heat and drought depend not only on the severity of the event but also on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the exposure system [16].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given this, GEVD has attracted attention in diverse areas of research such as climatology data analysis [20][21][22][23]. Issues relating to Extreme Value Theory gradually implemented in practical covariate approach of non-stationary conditions [15,20,[24][25][26][27][28]. An investigation by [29][30][31] on daily rainfall at various observation sites in West Africa revealed an increasing trend of yearly maximum rainfall.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

Musah

Udimal

et al. 2018

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful information, which can help local farmers make informed decisions to advance their livelihoods. We modelled historical data using extreme value theory and structural equation modelling. Subsequently, we studied extreme weather variability and its relationship to composite indicators of agricultural production and the long-term trend of weather risk. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures have negligible heterogeneity in their trends, while the annual maximum rainfall is homogenous in trend. Severe rainfall affects cereals and cocoa production, resulting in reduced yields. Cereals and cocoa grow well when there is even distribution of rainfall. The return levels for the next 20–100 years are gradually increasing with the long-term prediction of extreme weather. Also, heavy rains affect cereals and cocoa production negatively. All indicators of agriculture had a positive relationship with maximum extreme weather.

show abstract

Section: Climate Change and Variability In Ghanamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As seen below, Equations (11)- (15) are the path equations for prediction of the agriculture production indexes and weather extremes.…”

Section: Paths Equationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

Musah

Udimal

et al. 2018

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Tanzania has been impacted by extreme climatic conditions such as floods and droughts [3] [4]. These events have caused losses of life, property and destruction of environment [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Parameterization Schemes Skill to Simulate Extreme Rainfall Events over Dar es Salaam on 21 December 2011

Ngailo¹,

Shaban²,

Reuder³

et al. 2018

GEP

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper evaluates the skills of physical Parameterization schemes in simulating extreme rainfall events over Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model skill is determined during the 21 December 2011 flooding event. Ten sensitivity experiments have been conducted using Cumulus, Convective and Planetary boundary layer schemes to find the best combination and optimize the WRF model for the study area for heavy rainfall events. Model simulation results were verified against observed data using standard statistical tests. The model simulations show encouraging and better statistical results with the combination of Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization scheme, Lin microphysics scheme and Asymmetric Convection Model 2 (ACM2) planetary boundary scheme than any other combinations of physical parameterization schemes over Dar es Salaam region.

show abstract

The Way Forward: Climate Resilient Cities for Africa’s Future

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Analysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania

Cited by 27 publications

References 56 publications

The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

Assessing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Parameterization Schemes Skill to Simulate Extreme Rainfall Events over Dar es Salaam on 21 December 2011

The Way Forward: Climate Resilient Cities for Africa’s Future

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About