The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful information, which can help local farmers make informed decisions to advance their livelihoods. We modelled historical data using extreme value theory and structural equation modelling. Subsequently, we studied extreme weather variability and its relationship to composite indicators of agricultural production and the long-term trend of weather risk. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures have negligible heterogeneity in their trends, while the annual maximum rainfall is homogenous in trend. Severe rainfall affects cereals and cocoa production, resulting in reduced yields. Cereals and cocoa grow well when there is even distribution of rainfall. The return levels for the next 20–100 years are gradually increasing with the long-term prediction of extreme weather. Also, heavy rains affect cereals and cocoa production negatively. All indicators of agriculture had a positive relationship with maximum extreme weather.

In recent times, investing in volatile security increases the risk of losses and reduces gains. Many traders who depend on these risks indulge in multiple volatility procedures to inform their trading strategies. We explore two models to measure the tails behaviour and the period the stock will gain or fall within a five-month trading period. We obtained data from the Ghana stock exchange and applied generalized extreme value distribution validated by backtesting and an artificial neural network for forecasting. The network training produces and manages more than 90% accuracy respectively for gains and falls for given input-output pairs. Based on this, estimates of extreme value distribution proves that it is formidable. There is a significant development in market prediction in assessing the results of actual and forecast performance. The study reveals that once every five months, at a 5% confidence level, the market is expected to gain and fall 2.12% and 2.23%, respectively. The Ghana stock exchange market showed a maximum monthly stock gain above or below 2.12% in the fourth and fifth months, whiles maximum monthly stock fell above or below 2.23% in the third and fourth months. The study reveals that once every five months’ trading period, the stock market will gain and fall by almost an equal percentage, with a significant increase in value-at-risk and expected shortfall at the left tail as the quantiles increases compared to the right tail.

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