The Nexus of Weather Extremes to Agriculture Production Indexes and the Future Risk in Ghana

Abstract

The agricultural industry employs a large workforce in Ghana and remains the primary source of food security and income. The consequences of extreme weather in this sector can be catastrophic. A consistent picture of meteorological risk and adaptation patterns can lead to useful information, which can help local farmers make informed decisions to advance their livelihoods. We modelled historical data using extreme value theory and structural equation modelling. Subsequently, we studied extreme weather variability and its relationship to composite indicators of agricultural production and the long-term trend of weather risk. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures have negligible heterogeneity in their trends, while the annual maximum rainfall is homogenous in trend. Severe rainfall affects cereals and cocoa production, resulting in reduced yields. Cereals and cocoa grow well when there is even distribution of rainfall. The return levels for the next 20–100 years are gradually increasing with the long-term prediction of extreme weather. Also, heavy rains affect cereals and cocoa production negatively. All indicators of agriculture had a positive relationship with maximum extreme weather.

Estimation of Land Surface Temperature from Landsat-8 OLI Thermal Infrared Satellite Data. A Comparative Analysis of Two Cities in Ghana

“…The rainy season spans from April to mid-July and October and temperatures hoover around 24˚C and 28˚C all year round. The rainfall of Accra is usually down below 800 mm (31.5 in) [26]. The months that Accra experiences heavy rainfall are May and June.…”

“…The months that Accra experiences heavy rainfall are May and June. Occasionally the first half of July experiences also heavy rainfall [26]. Odaw River flows through Accra with approximately 60% of the Metropolis living in its catchment [27].…”

Exploring the Need for Developing Impact-Based Forecasting in West Africa

“…West Africa was selected for this study because the region has experienced a number of severe weather events with devastating socio-economic impacts (Schaer and Hanonou, 2017;Salack et al, 2018;Gbode et al, 2019). In addition, climate change induced extreme weather conditions are expected to significantly affect crop production in the region (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016;Ibn Musah et al, 2018). Changing climate is also expected to cause a substantial drop in hydropower production in West Africa (Yang et al, 2018;Falchetta et al, 2019) and increase the risk of infectious disease outbreaks (Bell et al, 2018;Thomson et al, 2018).…”

An Investigation into the Future Changes in Onset and Cessation of Rain and Their Variability over the Aswa Catchment, Uganda

“…Studies from different parts of the world suggest that high rainfall events can lead to crop yield reduction. Studies from Ghana revealed negative impact on crop yields due to heavy rainfall events [53,54].…”