Analysis of logistic growth models

Tsoularis, A.; Wallace, Jonathan

doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(02)00096-2

Cited by 833 publications

(716 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Stray dogs were subject to a constant death rate as well as a densitydependent death rate that increases as the stray population reaches its carrying capacity according to the Verhulst logistic equation (55). Additionally, we assumed that owned dogs would become stray as the former reached its carrying capacity, with dogs maintaining their epidemiological status.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

One Health approach to cost-effective rabies control in India

Fitzpatrick

Shah

Pandey

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Over 20,000 rabies deaths occur annually in India, representing one-third of global human rabies. The Indian state of Tamil Nadu has pioneered a "One Health" committee to address the challenge of rabies in dogs and humans. Currently, rabies control in Tamil Nadu involves postexposure vaccination of humans after dog bites, whereas potential supplemental approaches include canine vaccination and sterilization. We developed a data-driven rabies transmission model fit to human rabies autopsy data and human rabies surveillance data from Tamil Nadu. Integrating local estimates for canine demography and costs, we predicted the impact of canine vaccination and sterilization on human health outcomes and evaluated cost-effectiveness according to the WHO criteria for India, which correspond to thresholds of $1,582 and $4,746 per disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for very cost-effective and cost-effective strategies, respectively. We found that highly feasible strategies focused on stray dogs, vaccinating as few as 7% of dogs annually, could very cost-effectively reduce human rabies deaths by 70% within 5 y, and a modest expansion to vaccinating 13% of stray dogs could cost-effectively reduce human rabies by almost 90%. Through integration over parameter uncertainty, we find that, for a cost-effectiveness threshold above $1,400 per DALY, canine interventions are at least 95% likely to be optimal. If owners are willing to bring dogs to central point campaigns at double the rate that campaign teams can capture strays, expanded annual targets become cost-effective. This case study of cost-effective canine interventions in Tamil Nadu may have applicability to other settings in India and beyond. mathematical modeling | cost-effectiveness | rabies | sterilization | vaccination

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

One Health approach to cost-effective rabies control in India

Fitzpatrick

Shah

Pandey

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…-une courbe typique (Tsoularis et Wallace, 2002) de croissance de la matière végétale, pour un légume-feuille, pris ici comme exemple. Il s'agit en réalité de l'indice de surface foliaire LAI (Leaf Area Index, m 2 /m 2 ) en pourcent du LAI atteint à maturité.…”

Section: Fonctionnement Des Végétaux Et Périodes De Rejetsunclassified

Données utiles à l’interprétation des mesures de carbone 14 en milieu terrestre

Roussel-Debet¹

2013

Radioprotection

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Résumé -L'examen des résultats de mesure de 14 C, notamment dans le cadre de la surveillance environnementale requiert la connaissance de certaines spécificités du comportement du carbone. Les principaux paramètres susceptibles d'influer sur les mécanismes d'incorporation du carbone dans les matrices environnementales et donc sur les niveaux mesurés en 14 C sont succinctement rappelés. Des résultats de mesure d'échantillons biologiques ont été acquis par l'IRSN dans des zones non directement influencées par des rejets d'installations nucléaires ; ces chroniques permettent de présenter les valeurs du bruit de fond naturel et rémanent, exprimé en activité spécifique (Bq 14 C/kg C), hors de l'influence contemporaine d'un rejet local de 14 C. Abstract -Useful data for interpreting carbon-14 measurements in the terrestrial environment.Understanding the results of measurements of 14 C, in particular for environmental monitoring, involves identifying some specifics of the behavior of this element. The main parameters influencing the mechanisms of incorporation of carbon in the environmental matrices and thus the measured levels of 14 C are briefly reviewed. Data were acquired by the IRSN for biological samples, in zones not directly influenced by the atmospheric releases of nuclear facilities; this information allows us to present the values of the natural and artificial background, expressed as specific activity (Bq 14 C /kg C), not including the influence of a local release of 14 C.

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“…Bass diffusion models (Bass, 1969), frequently used in product and technology forecasting, also yield many other sigmoid or bell shaped curves as special cases. Discussions on more generalized growth models can be found in Birch (1999) or Tsoularis and Wallace (2002). Modis (2007) has also written an excellent and amusing overview of the strengths and weaknesses of S-curves.…”

Section: A Expmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many other scientists in disparate fields and disciplines have expressed similar reasoning. This gave birth to the logistic model and a multitude of similar, or extended models, that are all capable of describing bounded growth phenomena (Tsoularis and Wallace, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

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This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

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Analysis of logistic growth models

Cited by 833 publications

References 20 publications

One Health approach to cost-effective rabies control in India

One Health approach to cost-effective rabies control in India

Données utiles à l’interprétation des mesures de carbone 14 en milieu terrestre

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

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