Analysis and forecasting of Ukrainian agrarian exports to the EU countries

Abstract

Purpose. The purpose of the paper is to study the state, perspective directions of Ukrainian exports of agricultural products and the introduction of effective forecasting using the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system of aperiodic components.
 Methodology / approach. In the process of research, the fundamental provisions of modern economic science were used in relation to the groups of factors influencing the resulting indicators of export, foreign trade trends, methods of statistical analysis to assess the weight of factors influencing the resulting function, as well as modern mathematical methods for forecasting of agrarian exports were implemented.
 Results. The application of the developed mathematical model and the algorithm based on it, allowed to study the situation with the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU, to identify trends specific to individual countries and the EU market as a whole, to assess the opportunities and prospects of niche markets, expansion nomenclature of export goods. Prognoses were given both on the export prospects of individual goods, product groups, and on the volume of deliveries to the EU. The use of factor analysis for forecasting of export deliveries allowed us to assess the impact of each of the factors and limit their amount.
 Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, the method of mathematical modeling of a continuous system based on changes in its aperiodic components was used for efficient and relevant forecasting of agrarian export volumes. Even the stages of application of this method, in particular, the analysis and prognoses for individual items of the nomenclature of export goods, for individual countries – importers make it possible to represent the situation with agrarian exports more accurately and forecast future supplies.
 Practical value / importance. The proposed mathematical approach for market analysis and forecasting of markets can be used by both market regulators and producers and exporters of agricultural products. These polynomial equations for analysis and prognostication for individual product groups can be directly used in practice.

Forecasting husbandry development using time series

“…The analysis covers the level and dynamics of the indicators that determine it. S. Koliadenko et al (2020) examined potential avenues for Ukrainian agricultural product exports. Employing mathematical modelling, complex economic processes were analysed, and optimal solutions were found based on available data and information.…”

Risk-return profile of Ukrainian agribusiness: assessing the potential of investment policy

“…Besides, "a listed company attracts the confidence of customers, suppliers and banks in its financial stability and in the products and services it offers". Koliadenko et al (2020) focused their attention on the growing trend toward a wider assortment of agricultural exports. The main importers of Ukrainian agricultural products in the EU market have become Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Belgium and France.…”

“…The forecast trend, as suggested, is for higher added value. Vegetable and horticultural products were expected to be exported with shorter delivery leverage (Koliadenko et al, 2020). Lerman (2012) concentrated his attention on the giant shift from collective to individual agriculture for the markets of Central and Eastern Europe.…”

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“…The analysis covers the level and dynamics of the indicators that determine it. S. Koliadenko et al (2020) examined potential avenues for Ukrainian agricultural Time series models of the dynamics of changes in the number of farm animals in this study were built considering the RMSE and MAPE values. Using the proposed method, monthly changes in the number of cattle and cows for Ukraine until 2025 were predicted.…”