Analysing the role of fusion power in the future global energy system

Cabal, Helena; Lechón, Yolanda; Ciorba, Umberto; Gracceva, Francesco; Eder, Tabea Maria; Hamacher, Thomas; Lehtilä, Antti; Biberacher, Markus; Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Ward, D.J.; Han, Wenhua; Eherer, Christian Gerhard; Pina, André

doi:10.1051/epjconf/20123301006

Cited by 4 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…20 years if a doubling every 2.5 years can be achieved. While these numbers are consistent with the projection in [2], they shift the focus of the attention from the linear growth to the start of the exponential growth phase: how will that Gen1 fusion reactor enter the market? This brings us back to the first economic challenge, the 'valley of death'.…”

Section: An Illustration Of What It Means To Introduce Fusion By 2100supporting

confidence: 80%

“…In the paper 'Analysing the role of fusion power in the future global energy system' by H. Cabal et al [2], the EFDA Times model is used to project the introduction of fusion power under the constraint of a globally optimized energy system in a scenario that limits the global CO 2 concentration to 450 ppm. This results in an almost linear build up of fusion power from a negligible contribution in 2080 to 4-5 TWe 2 electric power in 2100.…”

Section: An Illustration Of What It Means To Introduce Fusion By 2100mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle

Cardozo

2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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The speed at which fusion energy can be deployed is considered. Several economical factors are identified that impede this speed. Most importantly, the combination of an unprecedentedly high investment level needed for the proof of principle and the relatively long construction time of fusion plants precludes an effective innovation cycle. The valley of death is discussed, i.e. the period when a large investment is needed for the construction of early generations of fusion reactors, when there is no return yet. It is concluded that, within the mainstream scenario-a few DEMO reactors towards 2060 followed by generations of relatively large reactors-there is no realistic path to an appreciable contribution to the energy mix in the twentyfirst century if economic constraints are applied. In other words, fusion will not contribute to the energy transition in the time frame of the Paris climate agreement. Within the frame of this analysis, the development of smaller, cheaper and most importantly, fast-to-build fusion plants could possibly represent an option to accelerate the introduction of fusion power. Whether this is possible is a technical question that is outside the scope of this paper, but this question is addressed in other contributions to the Royal Society workshop.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Fusion energy using tokamaks: can development be accelerated?'.

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Section: An Illustration Of What It Means To Introduce Fusion By 2100supporting

confidence: 80%

Section: An Illustration Of What It Means To Introduce Fusion By 2100mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle

Cardozo

2019

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…Usually, scenario based analyses are used in order to predict the severity of carbon restrictions placed in future contexts [20][21][22][23]. Discount rates are also found to have a large impact on the materialisation of fusion [23].…”

Section: Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Outputs estimated that fusion's share of global electricity production would be 30% by 2100, assuming a cost reduction rate of 1% and carbon tax reductions of 10%. Further scenario analysis has been conducted [21][22][23]. Data inputs for modelling carried out by Han and Ward were gathered 'externally' from the GEM-E3 model 3 [21].…”

Section: Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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The commercialisation of fusion for the energy market: a review of socio-economic studies

et al. 2022

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Progress in the development of fusion energy has gained momentum in recent years. However questions remain across key subject areas that will affect the path to commercial fusion energy. The purpose of this review is to expose socio-economic areas that need further research, and from this assist in making recommendations to the fusion community, (and policy makers and regulators) in order to redirect and orient fusion for commercialisation: When commercialised, what form does it take? Where does it fit into a future energy system? Compared to other technologies, how much will fusion cost? Why do it? When is it likely that fusion reaches commercialisation? Investigations that have sought to answer these questions carry looming uncertainty, mainly stemming from the technoeconomics of emerging fusion technology in the private-sector, and due to the potential for applications outside of electricity generation coming into consideration. Such topics covered include hydrogen, desalination, and process-heat applications.

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Fusion: Expensive and Taking Forever?

2015

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The road map of fusion power is compared to the development and deployment of other energy technologies. A generic deployment model is presented, which describes the fastest deployment (of any new technology) achievable with the constraint that the industrial capacity that needs to be built up must be continuous and should not overshoot the replacement market in the final, saturated state. It is shown that the development needs an 'investment' phase to build up industrial capacity which takes several decades, during which growth is typically exponential, but net energy production is negligible. During the exponential growth the cost is dominated by the capital investment, which allows for a simple comparison of different energy technologies. Fusion is at the start of the exponential growth phase, while still having significant uncertainties concerning its technical feasibility. In comparison to e.g. solar PV and wind, fusion is 'late', lagging by some 50 years. To follow the same rate of development that fission, wind and PV have shown, fusion will need to have 3 DEMO reactors operational in the early 2050s, followed by 10 generation one (GEN1) plants in the early 2060s and 100 GEN2 plants in the early 2070s. For the cost development to be comparable, an estimated allowable cost for one DEMO reactor is *20 G$. While these indicative numbers for the pace and cost of development are very challenging but perhaps not unthinkable for fusion, this analysis does point towards an emphasis on 'simpler and cheaper' reactor designs.

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Analysing the role of fusion power in the future global energy system

Cited by 4 publications

References 1 publication

Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle

Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle

The commercialisation of fusion for the energy market: a review of socio-economic studies

Fusion: Expensive and Taking Forever?

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