Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle

Abstract

The speed at which fusion energy can be deployed is considered. Several economical factors are identified that impede this speed. Most importantly, the combination of an unprecedentedly high investment level needed for the proof of principle and the relatively long construction time of fusion plants precludes an effective innovation cycle. The valley of death is discussed, i.e. the period when a large investment is needed for the construction of early generations of fusion reactors, when there is no return yet. It is concluded that, within the mainstream scenario-a few DEMO reactors towards 2060 followed by generations of relatively large reactors-there is no realistic path to an appreciable contribution to the energy mix in the twentyfirst century if economic constraints are applied. In other words, fusion will not contribute to the energy transition in the time frame of the Paris climate agreement. Within the frame of this analysis, the development of smaller, cheaper and most importantly, fast-to-build fusion plants could possibly represent an option to accelerate the introduction of fusion power. Whether this is possible is a technical question that is outside the scope of this paper, but this question is addressed in other contributions to the Royal Society workshop.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Fusion energy using tokamaks: can development be accelerated?'.

The commercialisation of fusion for the energy market: a review of socio-economic studies

“…These findings align with the findings of market share studies mentioned in section 2 [19,20,22,23,27]. Other costing methods in literature include those that take a top down approach, such as those conducted by Lopes Cardozo et al in 2016 and 2019 [26,150]. This involves the theoretical deployment of a reactor with specific thermal output into the future energy market, and then working backwards towards the present to predict the investment per Watt necessary for successful commercialisation.…”

“…This is because advanced schedules will result in the construction of DEMO preceding the design of the inner vacuum vessel components. In addition, a construction time of 10 years, (as quoted in several studies [22,23,25,154]), engenders the prevention of improvements in reactor iterations [150]. This is because investors would be required to order new iterations of reactors prior to the completed construction of its predecessor.…”

Plant efficiency: a sensitivity analysis of the capacity factor for fusion power plants with high recirculated power

“…The low effective plant efficiency of early model fusion power plants predicted in this paper, coupled to the expected high investment costs as it is envisioned today [18], will create a competitive disadvantage. This also underscored the concern about the 'valley of death' in the development of fusion power, which is the period while there is not yet a return on investment, but when a large investment is nevertheless needed for the construction of early generations of fusion reactors [19].…”

Plant efficiency: a sensitivity analysis of the capacity factor for fusion power plants with high recirculated power

“…The low effective plant efficiency of early model fusion power plants predicted in this paper, coupled to the expected high investment costs as it is envisioned today [17], will create a competitive disadvantage. This also underscored the concern about the 'valley of death' in the development of fusion power, which is the period while there is not yet a return on investment, but when a large investment is nevertheless needed for the construction of early generations of fusion reactors [18].…”