Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

Abstract

Abstrak 
 Cadangan devisa merupakan bagian penting dari perekonomian suatu negara. Besar kecilnya cadangan devisa dapat dipengaruhi oleh nilai ekspor. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis pengaruh ekspor, inflasi, BI rate, dan Utang Luar Negeri (ULN) terhadap cadangan devisa, serta menganalisis hubungan kointegrasi antara ekspor, inflasi, BI rate, dan utang luar negeri terhadap cadangan devisa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dengan bentuk data time series. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM) menggunakan aplikasi Eviews10. Hasil penelitian ini menujukan bahwa yang mempengaruhi cadangan devisa adalah BI Rate dan ULN, serta keseimbangan jangka pendek mempengaruhi keseimbangan jangka panjang.
 Abstract
 Foreign exchange reserves are an important part of a country's economy. The size of foreign exchange reserves can be influenced by the value of exports. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exports, inflation, BI rate, and External Debt (ULN) on foreign exchange reserves, as well as analyze the cointegration relationship between exports, inflation, BI rate, and foreign debt on foreign exchange reserves. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series data. Analysis of the data used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) using the Eviews10 application. The results of this study indicate that those that affect foreign exchange reserves are the BI Rate and external debt, and the short-term balance affects the long-term balance.

Determinants of Macroeconomic Effects on the Stability of Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserve

“…Goods with high export capabilities can demonstrate the existence of the Indonesian state in the international scope, reflecting the stability of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserve. Therefore, exports significantly impact Indonesia's foreign exchange reserve [4] and [5]. In addition, the source of foreign exchange reserves received by the country is greater than other activities outside of exports, such as foreign loans, grants, interest, or foreign investment.…”

“…Several studies mention and explain the opposite, stating that exports have no relationship to foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia [4] and [5]. In addition, imports also have a significantly positive impact on the foreign exchange reserve of Indonesia [6].…”

“…In addition, imports also have a significantly positive impact on the foreign exchange reserve of Indonesia [6]. Contrary to the conclusion of research conducted by Septian Angga Pratama, which revealed that imports significantly negatively affected Indonesia's foreign exchange reserve [5]. In addition to the variables that support the addition of foreign exchange reserves, the interest rate has a different impact.…”

Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves from 2001 to 2020

“…Real interest rates and foreign reserves are associated over a long period of time, according to an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) limit testing method [34]. [35] revealed that interest rates had an impact on foreign currency reserves for the period of 2016-2020 in Indonesia utilizing regression analysis of the Error Correction Model (ECM).…”

Penerapan Algoritma Bayesian Regulation untuk Estimasi Posisi Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

“…Cadangan devisa merupakan indikator moneter yang sangat penting untuk menunjukkan kuat atau lemahnya fundamental perekonomian suatu negara. Selain itu, cadangan devisa juga berpengaruh dalam tercapainya stabilitas moneter dan perekonomian makro suatu negara [6]. Berdasarkan data Bank Indonesia Posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia pada akhir Juli 2022 tetap tinggi sebesar 132,2 miliar dolar AS, meskipun menurun dibandingkan dengan posisi pada akhir Juni 2022 sebesar 136,4 miliar dolar AS.…”